http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080121/world_mar... our little bubble may be set to burst soon. short the market short the consumer. cancel that ski trip to Steamboat so we can pay the mortgage that just reset 2.5% higher! Bush fiddles while our economy burns. Gonna waste 150 Billion$ so we can all get $800. yeah right, that'll help. total idiocy. Got puts?
The e mini S&P futures , which trade overnight closed this AM at 1263, after closing Friday at1325, down 62 handles, the Dow e mini closed at 11576, down from 12099 over 500 points, Nasdaq 100 from 1860 to 1775, down 85. you figure out the percentages. Wait until the market opens tomorrow, it will be sell first and ask questions later. what YOU dont see is that this is no longer a "Correction", since all of the indexes have broke long term technical support levels, and when that happens the big boys dont buy because its cheap, but short with abandon or in Wall Street parlance, "sold to YOU". Again, recession is generally defined as 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth: Earning start this week with the financials reporting, we have already seen what garbage Citi, Merrill, Lehman,Countrywide, Wamu et al have on their books. Thought Citi was a buy at $5 in Oct.? Well it must be a screaming buy at $24. Hope you are buying the heck out of it.Countrywide from $45 to under $%5, Wamu from $45 to$13, should I go on. We do not yet know whether the economy continued to grow in Q4 of 2007 (I'm betting it did). HAHA, I'll take that bet. cant wait until those Q3 forecasts get revised down and unless your head is stuck in the sand, (yours may be elsewhere) retailers did not exactly have a great holiday season (we called it Grinchmas). J6P (Joe consumer) is tapped out, taking the equity out of their homes to buy vacations, RV's, boats, luxury cars, designer crap, and now finds out that he is underwater since home values nationwide have declined, his teaser ARM is going up and cant sell his house . so now he is living on his credit card, which is going to be the next to blow up along with auto loans, and HELOC's. Your boys in the White House got us to this point and they have absolutely no clue how to get us out of it. Bush, Bernanke and Paulson are looking like deer in the headlights. And thanks to them a lot of people in this country have been hurt. Thanks GOP. Got your IRA statement yet, bore? that 20% down in 3 months not bothering you now? PS. 10 year T bill is going to 3.2%. Thats DEPRESSION territory. But hey what do I know, I wouldn't dream of telling the Omnipotent One that he/she/it is wrong, for all I know you have a PHD in Economics from Yale like helicopter Ben. Naah, I dont think so Gotta go, need to tear off another page on my GW Bush out of office calendar, see what brilliant thing he said , Dang 365 more days!
Stomp gold down $20 bucks today, silver down .60. dont expect it to continue its meteoric rise. with the advent of the gold and silver ETF's gld is used as a very liquid hedge, and as such when the markets drop like they have, profits from them are used to meet margin calls and can drop very violently. can you believe sbore calling us nutjobs? pot calling the kettle black? LMFAO!
We tend to forget that the 1929 stock market crash was over several weeks and took a full 3 yrs to reach bottom.
"On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.
Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times.
Although it is popularly believed that the Crash inflicted heavy financial loss on investors during this period, the Great Depression which followed was far more terrible. While the Crash dealt a severe blow to many a stockholder's portfolio, the Great Depression brought obliteration and bankruptcy. Before it was over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932."
"What you are hyping is, safe to say, a market correction (which happens quite regularly and is quite healthy):"
Now it's "possible" that it's coming; not a market correction and it's "natural" as climate change? Flip-flop much, Kerryvor? Or did you just cut & paste without actually reading again? Ohhhh, wait a minute: you are posting someone else's answer and not your answer. What a surprise.
Read this from a man who knows more about the market than any of us Friday, January 18, 2008 Folding Friday Yeah.Folding. As in "The financial system is folding." I know, I know, The Fed will save us. Really? How come they haven't already? Perhaps it is because they can't? Because they really don't set interest rates, but rather follow the market? Because they know you can't "fix" someone who has borrowed too much by lending them even more money?
Today Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow, on their respective shows, floated an even more outrageous proposal - to effectively steal at gunpoint several firms in the United States and fold their assets and liabilities into the public debt. Yep. The Monoline insurers, specifically - Ambac, MBI, etc. Why?
If you remember at the end of the year in my "Year In Review" I talked about how, in fact, there is only so much "spread", or potential profit, in a particular debt issue, and that "spread" is determined simply by the risk of the issue.
To reduce it to simple terms, if you have a certain risk of not paying your loan back then that commands a higher interest rate than a "risk free" loan - that is, US Treasuries (loaning the Federal Government is generally thought of as being "without risk".)
The chimera (read: FRAUD) is that you can "lay off" this extra risk and not pay for all of it.
For the sake of argument let's say that the "risk difference" is 200 basis points over Treasuries on a given transaction for a given duration.
If you don't want the risk the only way you can lay it off is to give someone ELSE the entire 200 basis points! If they take the "liability" for less than 200 basis points then you have bamboozled them, and if they only reserved 100 basis points (for example) eventually they will go bankrupt because the true risk is twice as high!
It cannot be otherwise.
But if you do that, then why not just buy Treasuries? After all, why go through this entire exercise if indeed it doesn't make you any money?
The obvious answer? YOU WOULD NOT DO SO!
But these banks and other institutions did.
What we have here is a giant con game.
What has to happen here?
Simple: Those institutions that have managed to con others into taking risk for less than its actual price need to eat the consequences, and what better way to make them do so than to let the monolines all blow up!
Now there will be those who say that "we can't allow that".
To which I say "horsecrap!"
We not only CAN allow it, WE CAN'T PREVENT IT!
There ARE solvent banks in this nation - banks who made PRUDENT loans.
There ARE others who can step in the place of Citigroup, Lehman, Merrill and others.
Why don't Kudlow and Cramer suggest that these banks simply issue enough capital stock equal to their current outstanding, diluting all their existing stockholders by half, and use that cash?
Let's look at a few of these banks and their market caps, all in billions.
Merrill Lynch: 44.40 Lehman: 28.32 Morgan Stanley: 47.65 Goldman Sachs: 82.19 Citibank: 121.79 Bank America: 159.65
Total: $484 billion dollars
Gee, we have a $150 billion problem according to Cramer and Kudlow? It would seem to me that the root cause of this problem, the securitization of loans by the above firms (and a few others not included) which were all performed on the basis of improperly laid-off risk, inured to the benefit of these firm's market cap! Therefore, if we are to TAKE capital at gunpoint to solve this problem we should take it from THOSE WHO STOLE IT IN THE FIRST PLACE! Why isn't this being proposed? Because this isn't a $100 or $200 billion problem. Its much worse than that, and they know it. . And while they might try to "paper it over", if the government actually tries to step in the interest rate on the 10 year will go north of 10% - way north, perhaps as high as 20% - essentially immediately.
That will squick the Federal Government instantly - Bernanke and Paulson know this by the way, which is why it won't happen. Oh, and so do a good number of the members in The House and Senate. I'm sure they've been briefed and "get it" - although you'll never hear them admit that.
These realities are why you're hearing palliatives on the TV like sending everyone a $600 check. THAT they can do. Fix this? Can't. Those who are screwed will be cut adrift. There is no other choice. Got debt? You're in trouble - Got cash? Real, unencumbered cash? You'll be doing quite well. Hope you're in the second group, and not the first, because its too late to change where you are in this regard at this point
The only problem with gold being a liquid hedge, is if you get in trouble, and you go to liquidate your gold, but no one can afford to buy it because the currency values worldwide are so inflated the gold will continue to go up as currency values drop.
This is the problem with not having a gold or silver backed currency....
Once the currency tanks, you can't buy gold with it, and no one with the gold can sell it.
Here is a 1 year chart of the averages that you gave a 3 month of in your first post. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&a... since August (5 months) we have had 3- 10% or more corrections . you can see the support line where we bounced off of 3 times. ask any market technician, there is no such thing as a triple top or bottom. see those lines there on the far right? thats called "The Gates OF Hell" we have broken major support levels and the trend is down. we are almost guaranteed a 5% gap down tomorrow and unless the bearded one rides to the rescue with a rate cut,which would only temporarily rally the markets (meaning just long enough so the big boys could get out unscathed) it could be lights out. would 30% down in 3 months still be just a market correction? thats what all the brokers and talking heads were saying in 1999 and 2000, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=QQQQ&... while they said sold to you. so place your bets. personally I dont want a crash, but I'll profit from it. if it rallies here, i'll profit. all this political posturing from both side is a bunch of crap. all it is doing is delaying the inevitable. we need a recession to wash out the financial stink, the markets need capitulation to get on with it, and the sooner the better. got puts?
We've been playing against the market for the last year & have made profits from it. Hell- should have bought up Canadian Dollars just for fun over the last year- could have made a killing!
stomp I'm not talking about physical gold, but the gold and silver exchange traded funds, symbols GLD, IAU and SLV http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gld http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=iau http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=slv they track physical PM's and are backed by physical as the ETF buys gold and silver. they trade like any other stock and you can be long or short them. these ETF's are part of the reason that gold has gone as high as it has because just like oil the money going into them is being fueled by speculators driving the price up. gold in itself is pretty useless except for jewelry and electronics but its perception as something valuable is thousands of years old and the belief that it will be valuable when currencies go down the tubes is probably false. if we get to the point where we need gold as a currency, we will probably need lead more.
sbore Today's Ticker Essentially all of Europe was down 5-7%. The futures traded overnight and until midday, and at the close (until 5:00 PM) the /ES S&P futures were down almost 60 handles, or 4.5%, with the Nasdaq 100 /NQ futures down 75 handles, or 4%. The DOW, were it to open here, would be down about 500. And if you're an "equity investor for the long term", all you can do today is sit and cry, because the equity markets are closed. They won't be tomorrow, of course.
But before we get our crack at this, Asia, then Europe, get a go at Round #2. Will the collapse continue? Good question Barring some sort of massive intervention (which cannot be ruled out) we will have a severe decline tomorrow at the open. It will be very tempting to "short the hole", but down this road lies great risk. Always remember that until your paper profits are reduced to cash and in your hands, they're not yours! Also remember that attempting to catch the "last tick" of any move, in either direction, frequently leads to tears.
If you got any material part of this decline since the turn of the year and profited from it, you've outperformed virtually everyone.In a Bear Market, your benchmark to exceed is CASH.
The not-amusing part of this, if you're stuck in a 401k or simply haven't heeded the warning signs and are long the market, is that there is nothing you can do at the present time.
Please remember - Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered. And its very, very easy to be a pig in this environment and go "all in" short. Resist the temptation.
If you have some "lotto tickets" at this point in time, you're likely looking at big winners tomorrow. Consider cashing out at least your cost basis in those positions, if you're inclined to let the rest run.
1220, my intermediate term target on the SPX, appears to be in play - perhaps as early as tomorrow. Due to the holiday this could actually happen without tripping the "lock limit" on the futures, as it will be over two trading days. We are within 45 points of that target now.Should we get to 1220, I am almost certain to take nearly everything off and bank the money. Can we go lower than that? Absolutely. In fact, 1070, my "full bear" target, is in view. But expecting us to go there in a straight line is almost beyond comprehension.
We have, for all intents and purposes, crashed here and now. Assuming we were to open right now the market would have lost nearly 20% of its value in less than three weeks' time. By any definition you care to use, that's a crash.
The margin calls will be flying fast and furious tomorrow, which is likely to create interesting dislocations. Those of you who like metals may be in for a truly ugly surprise.
Yes, there will be rallies. As I noted in the technical Friday night, I put some "lotto" style plays back on into the close because I was greatly disturbed by what I was seeing in the market internals, and it appeared that we were heading for Niagra.
The River DeNile flows there, you know.
Goldilocks?
She's what's for dinner.
I'm just trying to show whats lurking out there outside the confines of our idyllic (with tongue firmly planted in cheek) valley
SC- Taking any bets on the the Dow tomorrow? Based on what you saw for the Futures, I'll say closing bell the Dow is down below 12,000. I'm betting close to 11,950.
sbore one more thing. you are quoting data that is at least 6 months old. the Dow has dropped 3000 points in 3 months, the financial market has collapsed, making those statistics moot.
kiel that would be about right. looking for a possible stick save from the fed. should know by 10 MST. if they dont it could be look out below. also depends on asia and europe. the market is ruled by fear and greed. greed got us to this point. fear rules for now.
Histronics??? LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!! Who get there panties in a bunch when 90% of the world is out to get them with taxes, affordable housing, global warming and now, even Tom Brady?? I'm just ringing the Pavlov bell.
Everyone sing along:
"Who's the leader of No Land who freaks out you and me? s-v-b, o-r-e, a-nah-ny-mous-ly."
What did we expect? How can one of the core commodities of our marketplace more than double (2.14 times pre-Bush) and not have a dramatic effect on our economy. I am sorry, but I remember pre-Bush gas prices of less than $1.30 a gallon. With prices hovering around $3.00 it undoubtedly will have to have a dramatic effect on our economy. Any Macroeconomist would tell you that. The price of oil is core element to our economy. Nearly everything along the supply chain utilizes this commodity either through its manufacturing process or transportation.
In a macroeconomic sense I would argue that the impact of the high energy prices have just started to be felt. Producers are willing to absorb some distribution costs on a very short term basis to handle market fluctuations. However, as it is becoming very apparent that high energy prices are here to stay producers are now passing the doubling this cost of manufacturing on to the consumer (a consumer that has not seen the doubling of wages).
Couple that with the housing market collapse (no offense to my friends that are mortgage brokers, but you had no business making those loans in the first place) and it would be very hard to argue that the artifical propping up of our economy has taken its toll.
Let's not forget the 30 years of accumulation by the baby boomer generation that will start slowing as a part of the natural cycle of life.
sbore, you go ahead and live in your false reality that we are not heading into a recession, but is very naive ... look at the major markets since second quarter of 07.
As a side note, I find it quite interesting that crude prices have fallen from $100 a barrel at the first of the year to now sitting at $88.21 and falling.
I never claimed the world was coming to an end. sbore. I am so glad that you think that the world is rosy pink. You and your rose coloured glases... but what is to be expected from you.
I do not blame our current predicament of high fuel prices on environmental wackos (though I agree with you that they are out there and more active than ever). I also do not see a shortage of supply (despite news headlines claiming that other countries like India and China are gobbling them up). I do disagree that we should be using our enourmous resources. After all, if we can force other countries to use up all of their resources and keep ours for a future date when we really do have a shortage I am all for it.
I do blame oil companies that have had record breaking profits since the "oil shortage" began. (Since you love to Google so much, find that one; or better yet look at the WSJ; every time one of them reports earnings it exceeds the prior quarter and not just be a little).
I guess I do not see the connection of 50 months of job growth as a correlation as to why we are not heading into a recession... you can have full employment and a recession since the definition relies on negative real economic growth not how many jobs are being created at the same pay they were (or in many industries/sectors less) eight years ago. Only one indicator of a recession is unemployment.
Don't get me wrong, I have personally benefited from the policies of the current administration (I voted to keep it in power... twice) but I do think that the true effect of his policies are just now being felt. It is too late in the game to blame it on 9/11 or the dot-com bubble. IMHO the current President will leave office as a disappointment.
What will the administration's excuse be now... the housing bubble? How about this, let's blame it on Iran (that seems to be the excuse of the week)?
dogd- Are you kidding? With the Writer's strike, this stuff is better than most of my favorite TV shows! I'm sending some of this stuff to Stephen Colbert! LOL!
And, even my prediction for the Dow was almost right on: closed 11970.19.
Lost a little in certain areas, but like steamboatconscience said, "got PUTS?" That held our account up nicely!
people are also forgetting another major reason oil prices have gone up so much.... the drastic decline of the dollar.
if the dollar had remained constant, the price per barrel would be far less.
as for the fiscal stimulus plan.... sounds like a great plan for the chinese. finance the money from foreign bond holders (chinese) and then give it to the consumer who buys cheap chinese goods.
With the internet, anyone can trade stocks on a daily basis.
I tried it for a bit, but decided to stick with what I'm good at.
Electricity.
Anyway,
What I see happening, and I mean no offense to anyone here,
but I think alot of the money being used in the stock market, is money that people thought they had in the equity of their homes.
We all talk about how we can hedge losses with put options and derivatives, but if those original stock purchases and put options are purchase from already financed income,
and the stock market starts to crash, like it will today, people will lose money in the markets, and not be able to meet their loan payments.
Bank Of America is already showing this happening.
This is just my opinion, but I would sell all stock ASAP and keep your cash on hand, don't put it in the bank.
If you look back at the 1929 crash, if you had money in the bank, you were screwed.
And I've seen this happening in third world countries lately.
People having trouble getting money out of their banks.
For your dictionary- TODAY was a correction...from yesterday. That's why us smart investors rode thru it!
And the irony of the music thread...I think it was lost on you! It was an ode to your flip-flopping nature on censorship...or do you need me to put it "in context" once again? LOL!!
hey bore just proves you are falling for the BS What we got is a bull rally in a bear market. plus a very scared government meddling with interest rates Our government never ceases to amaze me. They of course announce a "bipartisan stimulus package" to supposedly "help" our economy. The bond market no likey, to put it bluntly. The TNX, 10 year Treasury Rates, spiked hard - by more than 20 basis points, to 3.64%. That's a six and a quarter percent change on the day! Oh, and before someone says "oh it was rotation out into equities", no it wasn't. It was the bond market telling our government to quick jacking around with bull**** "handouts" and tampering with sound mortgage lending practices!
Specifically, what the market didn't like was the prospect of bypassing OFHEO and indexing Freddie and Fannie to "average" home prices for the rest of the year. We also found out that a supposed "rogue trader" caused a multi-billion-dollar loss for a French Bank, which they had to unwind last week and into Monday. Then this afternoon The Fed claimed this had nothing to do with their deliberations, and further, that they didn't know about it before their teleconference? One word: HORSEPOOP. Let's talk about what probably really happened at The Fed. * Ben and Buds saw a precipitous drop in commercial credit demand last week. They were faced with either draining huge amounts of liquidity or dropping the FFT. * Instead of allowing the market to sort out what was going on or doing the right thing and telling the banks - both in the US and overseas - to fess up to what was going on "or else", they PANICKED, and held an emergency meeting via teleconference, "agreeing" that the solution was an emergency rate action. This decision was allegedly made (according to Steve Lies-man) Monday night. * NOW we find out that the "collapse" in credit demand (and flight to Treasury debt) was actually caused by this "rogue trader" who spasm'd the equity markets worldwide. Or was it? Was that a rogue trader or was it really an institutional attempt - with authorization - on their part to bail themselves out of a bad position or three? Hmmm... who knows.... but the CAUSE of the panic is now clear. * And NOW the crack addled equity market is demanding another 50 bips in rate cut next week! Now this wouldn't be so bad except that Bennie had to inject a load of liquidity to maintain the target today. In fact, the slosh took a fairly sizable rocket shot northward. The bond market, being experts at sniffing out bull, saw all of the above and, having behaved itself up until this point along with a slowing economy, reversed hard, rocketing the cost of money for government debt upwards by six percent in one day! Oh, and if you look at the short term (13 week) Bill market (the IRX) it rocketed higher by NINE PERCENT! But but but you sputter, I thought Bennie's move was going to make mortgages and other loans more affordable? Well let's see.
On 1/18 the 10 year closed at 3.648%. Today, the 10 year closed at 3.640%.Rate cut? Lower interest rates for mortgages and other debt? Where? Bennie cut the FFT by 75 bips and the Treasury Market gave him the finger, taking it ALL back in less than 24 hours! You had about three hours yesterday to capture that lower mortgage rate. If you didn't lock yesterday, tough crap - you missed it. And if The Fed - and Congress - doesn't listen to the Bond Market and stop this stupidity government debt costs will continue to skyrocket and drag private debt costs higher, instead of the other way around, and will ultimately force the government to contract itself due to an inability to meet its interest obligations. You only think The Fed controls interest rates. It doesn't, and this is what the debt markets do when they get pissed off at government stupidity. You want to know what I think homeowners who are upside down ought to do after being RAMMED by the politicians today and Ben Bernanke on Tuesday? After seeing Ben Bernanke AND our government DRIVE UP, RATHER THAN DOWN, DEBT COSTS, DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY SCREWING MORE AND MORE PEOPLE? They should walk away. Send in the keys. Yes, your credit will be trashed for 7 years. So what? Tell the bank to get screwed. Today we had reported the first ANNUAL decline in home prices since the statistics began in the 1960s, and in all probability, since The Depression! THIS IS NOT OVER. House prices will continue to decline for the next TWO TO THREE YEARS, and if you're underwater NOW, you're going to be MORE UNDERWATER in a couple more years. YOU WILL BE A DEBT SLAVE UNLESS YOU ACT TO STOP IT! CUT YOUR LOSSES! Screw it. Check with an attorney to see if you can have other assets attached (in MANY states the answer is "no" on a purchase money first) and tell the people who have screwed you - and us - to take a hike. You can either default the debt NOW, or LATER, after throwing even more money down the rathole. But either way, as the economy contracts and your job comes under stress, if you're upside down you're screwed. Better to take the pain RIGHT NOW and cut off a finger rather than losing an entire LEG in a year or two!
Even Cramer recommended doing this ON NATIONAL TELEVISION a couple of months ago! Oh, and guess what - the mainstream press is even talking about it! Read all about it right here! LISTEN UP FOLKS: YOU HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO TAKE ANY LEGAL ACTION YOU WISH. Analyze this as a pure BUSINESS DECISION, talk to an attorney, and then ACT. SAVE YOURSELF.
As this deflation of the monetary base gains steam if you do not act you will have thrown away valuable money you could have otherwise held on to. Go rent a place first - so you pass the credit check and dig yourself out of your personal housing hell! Beware equity investors. The short bus is busting at the seams. Buy this rally? Oh hell no. It won't take long before reality sets in. This is a time to sit on your hands and patiently wait for the opportunity to throw darts at the quote page of the Wall Street Journal, then short whatever you hit.
pt you are correct, the market is presenting a buying opportunity, but I guarantee this is not the bottom. I have been trading the long side but only short term. if you are long term you will probably be ok but not without some more pain As for Cramer, I watch him for amusement, he is about 50 50 on his picks, is usually behind the curve when there is a downturn (perma bull way too long, hurting his viewers), and is lousy at picking bottoms. hows his charitable trust doing anyway?
bore tell me that the government has never lied to you. starting with stuttering Hank saying last summer Subprime mortgage problems are confined and will have no impact on the rest of the economy. Lie. Sounds like its you Pubes who are running scared with emergency rate cuts and hastily crafted "stimulus" packages , all designed to make the J6P (consumer) believe that all is well . Lie. If all is well, how come they are already selling this rally? even I thought it would last until the Fed decision on Wed. oh well. hows that Microsoft rally going? http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft Here's one for you. kinda dark in there, dont ya think? http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak...
bore guess its really dark in there http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak... at least I come up with something different every day while all you can do is repeat the same old bs day after day believe me you are the last person that I would try to convince that you are wrong, egomaniacs listen to no one but their own reflection. your sophomoric grasp of the economy and the market is amusing. as someone who questions everyone and everything around here, and berates the media constantly (except the far right wing media of course) you are telling me that you believe everything the government tells you? my guess is when the Dems win the White House and both Houses this year than everything they tell you will be a lie, right? done with you.
pt yup possibility 3, SG was going to write down a big loss and decided to try doing it this way letting a low level schlub take the fall and take care of him after he spends a couple of years in jail. Truth is stranger than fiction. http://www.rickrichards.com/
"C" is for CONgress.... ... and for an a-b-c corrective movement on the stock indices. On the CONgressional point, go to the petition page at http://financialpetition.org/ and sign again please. Yes, this is different. It is a plea for the CONgress to quit dorking around and actually force all the bad debts in the banking system out where we (the people) can see 'em. Why? Because if we don't, we're going to be facing a catastrophe. We're in a recession now folks. NBER will call it a year from now. I'm calling it right now. Why?Profits. Period. Hello! That, and ramping debt defaults. The market is starting to "get it", which is why we had a huge selloff. This is not done and those who listen to Cramer and Kudlow, trying to "bottom fish" here, are going to be looking at blackened - as in "burnt up", not "made lots of money" - 401k and IRA statements in the coming months. Recessions are not to be feared. They are in fact good things, in that they clean out the bad businesses and cause them to go under, which is exactly what needs to happen from time to time. This is true despite the wishes of some that we would never have a recession - an impossible and outrageous expectation, but there you have it. Government, of course, can make it worse. A lot worse. And left alone that is exactly what they will do by trying to buy votes with promises of "bread and circuses", all of which, by the way are empty promises. Why? First, the $1,000 or so they're claiming will be distributed will do nothing, for it will not hit anyone's bank for months and when it does, people will likely pay down debt rather than spend it - which means "no stimulus effect." Second, the changes that Democrats want to make to Fannie and Freddie limits are unsafe (so says OFHEO, the regulator of these organizations) and could very easily cause the cost of mortgage money in the "conforming space" to ramp precipitously - especially if these GSEs start to run into trouble in the marketplace (and they're likely to.) Further, we are right now seeing credit contraction. That's deflation folks. Its even starting to show up on "mainstream" media sites - for example:
"Other credit available to consumers has been shrinking sharply, according to an analysis by Ms. Zentner. The pool of unused credit — predominantly home equity lines of borrowing, bank loans and credit cards — was still growing at nearly 15 percent annually as recently as the fall of 2006. Now, with debt mounting, home prices falling and job growth slowing, that pool is diminishing at an 8 percent annual rate."
Ding ding ding ding ding.
Folks, credit is money and money is credit. Yes, I know they're different. But they are what is called "fungible" in the world of finance - that is, interchangeable for purposes of trade.
Credit is, in fact, virtually all of the monetary supply! Very little is actual money.
Oh, that "throw darts at the WSJ's Stock Page to pick shorts" moment? It may be approaching - see this:
"The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is updating rules for how mutual funds value holdings after they struggled to price mortgage-backed investments during the subprime-lending crisis.
Regulators are reacting to an explosion in derivatives and mortgage-backed bonds that don't always trade on exchanges, said Douglas Scheidt, an associate director in the SEC's investment management division. The guidelines, to be proposed this quarter, will set out steps to value assets when trading prices aren't available, he said."
AP New Home Sales Fall by Record Amount Monday January 28, 10:30 am ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer New Home Sales Dropped in 2007 by a Record Amount; Prices Posted Weakest Showing in 16 Years
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new homes plunged by a record amount in 2007 while prices posted the weakest showing in 16 years, demonstrating the troubles builders are facing with a huge backlog of unsold homes. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080128/economy.h...
Corporate Earnings On Track For Worst Drop Since 2001Last update: 1/28/2008 9:49:18 AM
By Laura Mandaro What was expected to be a stormy season for U.S. corporate earnings has turned into a blizzard, at least as far as financials are concerned. Fourth-quarter earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are on track to fall 20.5% from the same quarter last year, the most severe drop since the fourth quarter of 2001. By contrast, analysts were expecting a 9.8% drop in profits heading into this month's round of earnings reports, according to Thomson Financial. There are still about 340 companies in the S&P that have yet to report, and analysts said the overall picture could improve as a broader range of companies, particularly technology firms, announce their earnings. But with financials, materials firms and consumer discretionary companies all set to report profit declines for the period, actual earnings growth for the quarter seems out of reach. The main culprits for the results storm are the banks and the multibillion-dollar, debt-related losses they reported. Things were so bad among the nation's financial institutions that they managed to lose more money than the already gloomy analysts expected. Headlined by nearly $10 billion each in losses at Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) and Citigroup Inc. (C), reported and expected fourth-quarter earnings at financial institutions are on track to fall by the equivalent of more than 100% of their year-ago results - a far deeper tumble than the 67% slide that analysts were anticipating earlier this month. As expected, banks took huge write-downs on subprime debt and derivatives. Those with big consumer operations, such as Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), jacked up loan-loss reserves to cushion against accelerating delinquencies on credit card, car and other consumer loans. "Clearly the big story on earnings has been in financials," said Rod Smyth, chief investment strategist for Wachovia Securities. However, he anticipates nonfinancial companies will also struggle to meet earnings expectations. "There are more disappointments to come outside financials as the reality of a slower global economy plays out," he said. The grim news from financial institution earnings has stoked fears that the U.S. is headed toward, or is already in, a recession sparked by the housing slump, tight credit and high gasoline prices. This past Tuesday, in an effort to prevent a deep recession, the Federal Reserve engineered a surprise 75-basis-point cut in its benchmark overnight lending rate. The U.S. central bank cited a "weakening of the economic outlook," deterioration in financial markets and tighter credit for businesses and households.
what part of minus signs across the WORLD dont you understand? Global Stock Indexes at 15:15 EST/2015 GMTLast update: 1/28/2008 3:15:13 PM
Latest Change %Change %12/31 New York DJ Indus 12261.80 +54.63 +0.45 -7.56 Intraday Nasdaq 2328.00 +1.80 +0.08 -12.23 Intraday NYSE Comp 8888.05 +60.55 +0.69 -8.75 Intraday S&P 500 1339.97 +9.36 +0.70 -8.74 Intraday Russell 2000 695.33 +6.73 +0.98 -9.23 Intraday DJ Wilshire 5 13521.68 +98.18 +0.73 -8.76 Intraday Toronto S&P/TSX 12890.43 -4.40 -0.03 -6.81 Intraday London FTSE 100 5788.90 -80.10 -1.36 -10.35 Close FTSE 250 9640.50 -98.00 -1.01 -9.55 Close Frankfurt Xetra DAX 6818.85 +2.11 +0.03 -15.48 Close Paris CAC40 4848.30 -29.82 -0.61 -13.64 Close Tokyo Nikkei Stock 13087.91 -541.25 -3.97 -14.50 Close Nikkei 300 263.21 -11.11 -4.05 -12.58 Close Hong Kong Hang Seng 24053.61 -1068.76 -4.25 -13.52 Close Sydney S&P/ASX 200 5860.30 +279.90 +5.02 -7.56 Jan 25 All Ord 5886.30 +280.50 +5.00 -8.33 Jan 25
DJ Europe STOXX 600 318.70 -3.53 -1.10 -12.60 Close STOXX 50 3212.47 -33.54 -1.03 -12.79 Close EuroSTOXX50 3765.41 -11.65 -0.31 -14.42 Close Amsterdam AEX 439.32 +0.63 +0.14 -14.82 Close Athens ASE 4442.34 -74.47 -1.65 -14.22 Close Brussels BEL-20 3663.79 +30.15 +0.83 -11.23 Close Copenhagen KFX 399.50 -5.50 -1.36 -13.93 Close Dublin ISEQ 6641.64 -119.07 -1.76 -4.22 Close Helsinki HEX 10306.29 -263.74 -2.50 -11.14 Close Istanbul IMKB-100 43706.68 -1790.56 -3.94 -21.30 Close Jo-burg All Share 25692.87 -809.36 -3.05 -11.28 Close Lisbon PSI General 3481.00 -8.44 -0.24 -15.59 Close Madrid IBEX 35 13026.70 -114.40 -0.87 -14.20 Close Milan S&P/MIB 34234.00 +37.00 +0.11 -11.21 Close Mibtel 25858.00 -40.00 -0.15 -12.05 Close Oslo All-Share 463.26 -12.11 -2.55 -18.72 Close Prague PX 1487.40 -49.30 -3.21 -18.05 Close Russia RTS 1978.68 -54.41 -2.68 -13.61 Close Vienna ATX 3781.94 -119.56 -3.06 -16.20 Close Zurich Swiss Mkt 7581.73 -105.15 -1.37 -10.64 Close
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter Wednesday January 30, 11:00 am ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter; Suffers Worst Year Since 2002 WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002. The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated. For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years. The report came as the Democratic-run Congress and the Bush administration continue to work on a program of tax rebates and business incentives aimed at stimulating the economy. "We are not happy with 0.6 percent GDP growth," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in an interview with The Associated Press. "We now need the full Congress to move forward as soon as possible because consumers -- the American people -- are waiting for that check and that is going to help them." Said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics: "The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street. The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak. The fourth-quarter's performance was much weaker -- half the pace -- than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace. The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product (GDP) marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarter's brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year. The GDP figures come as worries mount that the country is on the verge of a recession or perhaps is already sliding into one. To help bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve was poised Wednesday to again cut interest rates. An afternoon announcement was expected. REMEMBER Christmas is included in these #'s. OR should I say Grinchmas. But dont worry, the .gov will ride to the rescue with rate cuts (can you say INFLATION?) and BS "Rescue" packages. sorry bore, you are living in the past, actually even you could learn something about economics from me. as the great Thomas Dewar once said "Minds are like parachutes, they only function when open."
LOL! Again- time to use the Bore's BEA link to dispute the statement. The funny part? SBC's post is points to all the stats that caused Bore to say, "YOU LOSE:"
First paragraph:
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis." Just no actual analysis on this site since it's a Gov site. That's left up to...Bum, bum BUMMMM: Economic Writers.
Once again, the Bore proves that you don't have to read the link in order to provide them. Nothing in any link disputes what SBC quoted; just a fear of someone countering the Bore's propaganda. So much for "educated." Intoxicated...maybe. Medicated? Oooohhhhh, we've known that one for a while!
kiel as the great Thomas Dewar once said "Minds are like parachutes, they only function when open."" maybe bore could use some of Tommy's medicine, eh?
SBC- No, I think the Bore has been nipping too much Dewar's recently: Bore's own brand of Fool-Aid from people who have more guts to put name to their own thoughts instead of just Googling and cutting & pasting. Most 5yr olds can do that. So much for who is proving child-like.
Bore- PROVE what sbc quoted was a lie. You can't since it quoted FACTS that YOUR LINK provided and was expanded in an OP-ED piece. Again- fear of propaganda that disputes your own propaganda.
You truly don't read anything you post any longer. In fact, you just cut and paste most of the above post...yet again, proving you only Wash, Rinse & Repeat.
Readers: now ask yourself what does that post say that disputes what SBC posted and what the "lies" are. In fact, the Bore's "January 30, 2008 at 9:22 a.m." post is mostly the same links, same crap posted at least 4 other times in the last 2 days on this very thread.
Remember: Repetition makes it correct! Bush even does this with each speech: "Al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq." Must be the Iraqi equivalent to the Boston Marathon. Each State of the Union we hear that Al Qaeda is on the run. Running....where? To the other side of Iraq to stick out their tongues at us while we play "Wherdidego? Wherdidego?"
SBC- Waaaaiiiitttt a minute: NYBOT has three letters in that Acronym that are also used for the New York Times (N-Y-T...or O-Y-T for the Bore), so it must be a Liberal website. Therefore, it's null and void from being accurate.
LOL!
***boy, Al Qaeda must be the new Jim Fixx, being out there running all these years. Maybe Al will just drop over from a heart attack, too, and we can declare "Victory!"***
kiel what about FOX? 3 letters? Fascist right wingers? that $ chart is scary thats real buying power evaporating a .5% rate cut, why is the 10 year up? http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Etnx the rally is already bleeding off, it wont hold
No, no: FOX stands for Fooling Others Xceedingly. Or, it was the past President of Mexico.
Ooohhhh, I love watching Hannity do his little petulant "No it's not. No it's not." over and over again when someone presents contradictory info to what he says.
If there is nothing to support us dwindling into a possible recession, why are they discussing a stimulus package? A market correction wouldn't cause that. Normally, it's a simple interest rate adjustment to spark it back to life.
No, giving back that much money means the Pres is worried, and he's your "Lincoln," remember? He must do what's unpopular, but necessary, right?
So: the whole thing is, the EXPERIENCE is telling you your LINKS are what LOSE!
Gee. What cut & pasty response should we expect this time? Remember: repetition is key in propaganda.
"prop·a·gan·da (prŏp'ə-gān'də) Pronunciation Key n. The systematic propagation of a doctrine or cause or of information reflecting the views and interests of those advocating such a doctrine or cause."
Pretty systematic to repeat stuff over and over, huh?
ARE THE BANKS OUT OF RESERVES? Let me preface this by saying that I'm not at all certain I understand what I'm looking at here correctly. I've been fighting with this all weekend, and don't wish to alarm. But perhaps "alarmed" is exactly what we should be right now. Reference? Right here http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h... Specifically:
Date total(2) non- required excess Monetary credit, total primary secondary seasonal borrowed(3) NSA(4) base(5) NSA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30p 41639 -8751 40179 1460 821298 50000 390 385 0 5 What are you looking at here? This is the last line of the Fed's "Statistical Release" from January 31st. All figures are in millions. The link to their page is above. The "Total" is the total amount of reserves in the Fed System (among all member banks), and is approximately $41.5 billion. The required reserves, based on the amount on deposit, is $40.2 billion (roughly.) So far so good. But notice that "non-borrowed" number - the negative 8751? What does that mean? Well, after much study and trying to get the numbers to all add up, the light went on. Let's add up a few things for everyone. The TAF credit, which is the amount that Fed Banks have borrowed in total through the TAF facility through January 30th, is 50 billion. We also have other primary and seasonal borrowings, which are quite small (and normal) of $385 and $5 million, respectively. Now let's get out our trusty calculator and add things up. 50000 + 390 (385 + 5) - 8751 = $41,639. The books balance. But do you notice anything about this bookkeeping? Literally all of the banks' reserves, on balance, are in fact Fed Credit from the Federal Reserve! WHERE IS YOUR MONEY THAT YOU DEPOSITED?
Now normally only 10% (or is it 5% now - it sure looks like it, when you look at the monetary base!) of what you deposit is "held back" in reserve. This is, in fact, the very foundation of a fractional reserve banking system, and whether you agree or disagree with that as a foundation, it is what it is and it is what it has been since The Federal Reserve was set up. But unless I'm reading this table incorrectly, there not only is no reserve of depositors money currently being held the banks are in aggregate nine billion in the hole with respect to what is supposed to be held - having replaced all of it, and then some, with the TAF Auction Credit! So this leads one to an obvious - and disturbing - question: Where did the reserve that was supposed to be held back from our deposited funds go, and where is it now? Oh, and why has the deterioration been so dramatic - going from basically all of your reserves being depositor money two months ago to now being less than "none"? The follow-up to that question, by the way, is even more serious: Exactly how far can "non-borrowed" reserves go into the hole and how, and when, will they no longer BE in the hole? Are fire-sale style asset sales in the offing - in the very near future - in order to rectify this little problem? I don't have either answer, but I'd sure like to know what those answers are.
addendum to the above if you go to the historical data page which goes back to 1959 http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h... No similar event appears to exist within the range of online records, which go back to 1959. (Weekly data available through 1975.) also for those who may not know the TAF is the Temporary Auction Facility; established by the Federal Reserve for the banks to 'auction' their MBS, CDOs,etc. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypo... can we be sure that the FDIC is solvent? and our $100,000 per account is safe?
"CME Eurodollar futures prices are determined by the market’s forecast for the delivery month of the 3-month LIBOR interest rate" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
stomp still trying to figure it out, not a conspiracy (come on) , but most likely the .gov's attempt to bail out the banks with the TAF auctions, but Europe is definitely in trouble http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jh...
Well I'll keep looking, just waiting for bore to tell me "IF the media would just shut up it would get better" or "If I ignore it , it will go away. Nero fiddled while Rome burned too.
all I am doing is posting the latest data released by the government, all of which are pointing to a recession. its not hysteria, its called being ahead of the curve rather than denying that it is a real possibility. when the financial sector leads the way down as it is now, we are in for a rough ride, and the American public will be the biggest losers. if I said the sky is blue, you would say no, it is ABSOLUTELY yellow or green or red, just to be argumentative. you do it with everyone. no problem, I'm not here to convince you of anything, you have convinced yourself.
shouldnt you be standing outside the Post Office right now handing out your propaganda and railing against the Dems and engaging in fisticuffs with Ken?
Subslime, one of the US's biggest export product The Royal Bank of Scotland is scrambling to reassure investors that it has a robust capital base in the face of increasing speculation that it needs to plug an estimated £12.5bn gap in its finances. The Edinburgh-based bank is facing tough questions from City analysts and investors about whether it needs to conduct a rights issue or sell off assets to raise funds. There are also concerns that it might need to write off more losses from its exposure to financial instruments linked to the sub-prime mortgage crisis. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/...
Oil Drops Below $88 on Recession Fears Oil futures fell sharply Tuesday, dropping below $88 after financial markets were surprised by data that indicated the traditionally strong service sector shrank dramatically last month, raising the prospect that demand for energy will weaken along with the economy. Expectations that crude supplies are climbing also took prices lower. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/oil_price...
tell you what. if the economy is in such good shape show me some good CURRENT news that would that would prove it. and not your old tired retread links. something NEW
Toll Brothers 1Q Home-Building Rev $842.7M, -22% >TOLL last update: 2/6/2008 5:39:52 AM DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Wednesday said it doesn't see any end in sight to housing market woes, and said its fiscal first-quarter home-building revenue fell 22% from year-ago levels to $842.7 million. "The housing market remains very weak in most areas. Based on current traffic and deposits, we are not yet seeing much light at the end of the tunnel," said Robert Toll, the firm's chairman and CEO. Toll Brothers said its backlog fell to $2.4 billion, down 42% from the fiscal first quarter of 2007. The company said the gross number of signed contracts on homes fell 46% from last year. Toll said the average price of a house it sold fell, while the average price of cancelled houses rose. "With conditions still weak in most markets, we expect to continue to face challenging times ahead," Toll said. The company said it is still finalizing its first-quarter impairment analysis, but said it expects pretax write-downs of between $150 million and $300 million. Toll said it will report full first-quarter results on Feb. 27. -Greg Morcroft; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires
I can't afford to invest in the stock maket. I wish I could but I can't.
But,
SBC, You quote a comment that made me think.
"With conditions still weak in most markets, we expect to continue to face challenging times ahead,"
I thought SS is not most markets. I am painfully aware of that. I need a three bedroom house at a reasonable price. In a nice neighborhood. Close to or in town. 600,000.00 is not my idea of reasonable. I'm still waiting.
The housing market may slump across the board but I have been in that industry a long time and I can tell you it slows but it never stops. Every slump I have witnessed has turned a corner eventually.
Now I would like to ask the thread a question.
Reviewing some of the data furnished in links above I have seen several trends. Overall they seem to me to indicate that;
Over the last 60 years we have had several fluctuations in an economy that has overall continued to grow.
kiel Wall Street thinks the stimulus package is all BS anyway. I hope they derail the whole thing. when I mentioned the ISM numbers yesterday morning, the bore dismissed it with the same old same old cut and paste, so you had to know that it was relevant Cisco is getting slaughtered after hours the QQQQ's and SPY will be down tomorrow. Technically its still sell the rallies. pt well you got steel ones eh? hope you sold some covered calls against them. 424 Steamboat is not most markets, since it is a resort area, and highly desirable. over the last 10 years nearly everyone's property has doubled in value, vacant land has appreciated even more (astronomically in some cases, and is the biggest factor, in my opinion, to the cost of housing being so high) so you are about 10 years late to the party. about 30% of that has come in the last 2 years. So are we in a bubble here? well the answer is... maybe. when I see 900 sf 4 plex crackerboxes going for $500 a sf, then maybe it's time to sell my 2300sf single family I built for $200k and move to Laguna Beach and live happily ever after. Its impossible to call a top or bottom in any market, but I think we are at a crossroads here and and I expect that prices will hold but not go up for a while. Mortgage lending standards are getting tougher there wont be anyone lending on those $450k condos with little or no down and no income verification. tighter lending could bring prices down , or it could take supply off the market if people decide that if they cant get their price they wont sell. but I can be pretty sure that it still will not be affordable to own a house here anytime soon. Colorado is a boom or bust economy, housing in general is the same. until the major homebuilders work off their inventory of unsold homes and banks get the majority of their foreclosed properties sold, housing will be in a slump. Locals here will remember it wasnt too many years ago the Sunday Pilot's public notices were full of foreclosure notices. Been quiet lately. Is that about to change?
A small group of scientists, including some psychologists, say they are starting to discover what many Wall Street professionals have long suspected — that people are hard-wired for money. The human brain, these researchers say, responds to high-stakes trading just as it does to the lure of sex. And the riskier the trades get, the more the brain craves them.
"In other words, traders are sending stocks down by a fantastically larger amount than is warranted by a recession or the losses in subprime. How and why does it happen? As someone said in the movie: “Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.” It’s just Chinatown in trader-land, where money is made and there is no perspective."
In United States Banking, eurodollars are a popular option for what are known as "sweeps". By law, banks aren't allowed to pay interest on corporate checking accounts. To accommodate larger businesses, banks may automatically transfer, or sweep, funds from a corporation's checking account into an overnight investment option to effectively earn interest on those funds. Banks usually allow these funds to be swept either into money market mutual funds, or alternately they may be used for bank funding by transferring to an offshore branch of a bank (thus a eurodollar).
-Quote- Please note that your money in the Sweep Investment Account is invested in money market funds that are not insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. Although the funds seek to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the funds. A current prospectus must accompany investment information. Investors should read the prospectus carefully before investing. -End of quote- Source: http://www.guarantybank.com/corporate/tr...
Some of these corporations hold billion in their corporate checking accounts. Naturally, although unethical, many are going to allow the banks to do this.
What happens when these investment begin to tank, like they are, and the holders of the offshore eurodollar accounts begin to keep more and more, effectively sucking up all the dollars in the US.
Since they control the Federal Reserve, they can simply print more money, further deflating the value of the dollar,
trapping these huge corporate investments in offshore accounts, that Americans have absolutely no control over.
Treasurys slide after auction draws poor reception U.S. Treasurys plunged on Thursday, sending yields sharply higher, with the long bond down nearly three full points, after the government's $9 billion auction of 30-year bonds drew a dismal reception. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tr...
"* The economy shed 17,000 jobs in January, much worse than the forecast for a gain of 70,000 (especially after ADP said the economy ADDED 130,000 workers in the month). It's also the first time the economy lost jobs since August 2003 (-42,000). The chart above shows the net gains or losses in jobs, by month, going back several years.
* As it always does in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its jobs numbers from the past year. Most months saw reductions in job growth, with the net impact a cut of 376,000 jobs to 2007's previously reported numbers.
* Earnings growth slowed. Average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% after gaining 0.4% in December. That was below the 0.3% that economists were looking for.
* The "diffusion" index fell to 46.2 from 50 in December. This number measures how many industries are ADDING jobs against how many are CUTTING them. A number below 50 means more industries are shedding workers than adding them. January's reading was the lowest since August 2003.
* Speaking of industry cuts, the construction sector shed another 27,000 jobs (on top of readings of -45,000 in December and -57,000 in November), and manufacturing lost another 28,000 positions, the biggest drop since August (-45,000).
There weren't many other notable gains or losses, with the exception of education/health (+47,000). Leisure and hospitality continues to add jobs, but the rate of increase is slowing (to 19,000 in January from 22,000 in December, 24,000 in November and 52,000 in October). In fact overall service sector gained just 34,000 jobs in January, the least since October 2005.
Early market reaction? Stock futures have dipped into negative territory. Long bond futures are trading up a half point, while 2-year yields are down 5 basis points and 10-year yields have dipped just over a basis point. The dollar index initially spiked lower, but is now off just 14 ticks. It's worth pointing out, however, that the DXY has been deteriorating over the past several days and it's now within a stone's throw of its multi-decade low (75.05 now vs. the November 23, 2007 low of 74.48)."
Paints a rosy picture, eh? Makes you wonder what the Feb rate will show. Plus, the Senate voted the Bill in today. Note that this is dated 1FEB and states EARLY market reaction.
A recession is coming. Why else would there even BE a stimulus package? Bush even admitted there was a risk of recession...or a PC "downturn."
Just like the old Steamboat slogan: "It's Comin'." You can't see it because your got your head up someone's southbound talking points.
In fact, the last stimulus package (read: tax cuts) still not keep us from recession. We bombed Iraq in order to get out of it. About the time it turned around.
Don't bother answering: I'm sure you're too busy coming up with a new handle to hide behind soon, because again: "It's Comin'!"
Many Believe US Already in a Recession Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
The fallout from a depressed housing market and a credit crunch nearly caused the economy to stall in the final three months of last year. Some experts, like the majority of people questioned in the poll, say the economy actually may be shrinking now. The worry is that consumers and businesses will hunker down further and pull back spending, sending the economy into a tailspin. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080210/recession...
"* The economy shed 17,000 jobs in January, much worse than the forecast for a gain of 70,000 (especially after ADP said the economy ADDED 130,000 workers in the month). It's also the first time the economy lost jobs since August 2003 (-42,000). The chart above shows the net gains or losses in jobs, by month, going back several years.
* As it always does in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its jobs numbers from the past year. Most months saw reductions in job growth, with the net impact a cut of 376,000 jobs to 2007's previously reported numbers.
* Earnings growth slowed. Average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% after gaining 0.4% in December. That was below the 0.3% that economists were looking for.
* The "diffusion" index fell to 46.2 from 50 in December. This number measures how many industries are ADDING jobs against how many are CUTTING them. A number below 50 means more industries are shedding workers than adding them. January's reading was the lowest since August 2003.
* Speaking of industry cuts, the construction sector shed another 27,000 jobs (on top of readings of -45,000 in December and -57,000 in November), and manufacturing lost another 28,000 positions, the biggest drop since August (-45,000).
There weren't many other notable gains or losses, with the exception of education/health (+47,000). Leisure and hospitality continues to add jobs, but the rate of increase is slowing (to 19,000 in January from 22,000 in December, 24,000 in November and 52,000 in October). In fact overall service sector gained just 34,000 jobs in January, the least since October 2005.
Early market reaction? Stock futures have dipped into negative territory. Long bond futures are trading up a half point, while 2-year yields are down 5 basis points and 10-year yields have dipped just over a basis point. The dollar index initially spiked lower, but is now off just 14 ticks. It's worth pointing out, however, that the DXY has been deteriorating over the past several days and it's now within a stone's throw of its multi-decade low (75.05 now vs. the November 23, 2007 low of 74.48)."
Paints a rosy picture, eh? Makes you wonder what the Feb rate will show. Plus, the Senate voted the Bill in today. Note that this is dated 1FEB and states EARLY market reaction.
A recession is coming. Why else would there even BE a stimulus package? Bush even admitted there was a risk of recession...or a PC "downturn."
Just like the old Steamboat slogan: "It's Comin'." You can't see it because your got your head up someone's southbound talking points.
In fact, the last stimulus package (read: tax cuts) still not keep us from recession. We bombed Iraq in order to get out of it. About the time it turned around.
Don't bother answering: I'm sure you're too busy coming up with a new handle to hide behind soon, because again: "It's Comin'!"
Tip of the Iceberg NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest insurer, on Monday disclosed that its auditors questioned the company's internal controls over its valuation of derivatives, sending its shares down more than 11 percent.
The disclosure cast doubt on AIG's past contention that it didn't face major problems stemming from the credit crisis that has slammed other financial institutions. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNe...
US Subslime infects the World Sub-prime fears at WestLB and IKB threaten German banking WestLB and the IKB, once dubbed the turbines in Germany's powerhouse, were struggling yesterday to cling on to their reputation as serious lenders.
The two banks are still reeling from the meltdown in the US sub-prime market. The crisis is percolating through the whole of the German banking sector; politicians are increasingly nervous that at least one German bank may go under, which would send a devastating signal to the markets. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/bu...
Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime How the Bush Administration Stopped the States From Stepping In to Help Consumers http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con... By Eliot Spitzer Thursday, February 14, 2008; Page A25
Several years ago, state attorneys general and others involved in consumer protection began to notice a marked increase in a range of predatory lending practices by mortgage lenders. Some were misrepresenting the terms of loans, making loans without regard to consumers' ability to repay, making loans with deceptive "teaser" rates that later ballooned astronomically, packing loans with undisclosed charges and fees, or even paying illegal kickbacks. These and other practices, we noticed, were having a devastating effect on home buyers. In addition, the widespread nature of these practices, if left unchecked, threatened our financial markets.
At Home
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 11:43 a.m. (Suggest removal)
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080121/world_mar...
our little bubble may be set to burst soon.
short the market
short the consumer.
cancel that ski trip to Steamboat so we can pay the mortgage that just reset 2.5% higher!
Bush fiddles while our economy burns.
Gonna waste 150 Billion$ so we can all get $800. yeah right, that'll help. total idiocy.
Got puts?
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 12:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)
See? Again you prove the point that you don't read anything but your own links.
It was steamboatconscience...not stomp, idiot.
Again- you also prove my point about disputing things just as liberal.
Bush is the one who's pushing for a rebate to "spur the econonmy." Why do that if the econonmy is going strong?
Also, a market correction doesn't have the Dow drop almost 1000 pts in less than a month. Married to a family of stockbrokers, thank you very much!
Posted by corduroy (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 12:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
sbvor's lack of reading skillz is funny :) thanks for making me smile
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 1:14 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Nut jobs? Ad Hominem Central!
Proof of the move to the Left for the Bore! So...1929 was just a "correction" of 17% in a month, right? Uh-huh.
How about 13% "intraday" 12% the next day...must have just been hype.
Learn your history while staying away from casinos.
Way to put your post "back in to context." Classic Conservative/Liberal tactic.
So, no- my family is juuuuusssst fine with their education.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 1:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Yes, we are in a giant credit trap. Gold continues to rise because the value of the dollar continues to decline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq7Li1MOF...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 2:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The e mini S&P futures , which trade overnight closed this AM at 1263, after closing Friday at1325, down 62 handles, the Dow e mini closed at 11576, down from 12099 over 500 points, Nasdaq 100 from 1860 to 1775, down 85. you figure out the percentages. Wait until the market opens tomorrow, it will be sell first and ask questions later.
what YOU dont see is that this is no longer a "Correction", since all of the indexes have broke long term technical support levels, and when that happens the big boys dont buy because its cheap, but short with abandon or in Wall Street parlance, "sold to YOU".
Again, recession is generally defined as 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth:
Earning start this week with the financials reporting, we have already seen what garbage Citi, Merrill, Lehman,Countrywide, Wamu et al have on their books. Thought Citi was a buy at $5 in Oct.? Well it must be a screaming buy at $24. Hope you are buying the heck out of it.Countrywide from $45 to under $%5, Wamu from $45 to$13, should I go on.
We do not yet know whether the economy continued to grow in Q4 of 2007 (I'm betting it did).
HAHA, I'll take that bet. cant wait until those Q3 forecasts get revised down and unless your head is stuck in the sand, (yours may be elsewhere) retailers did not exactly have a great holiday season (we called it Grinchmas). J6P (Joe consumer) is tapped out, taking the equity out of their homes to buy vacations, RV's, boats, luxury cars, designer crap, and now finds out that he is underwater since home values nationwide have declined, his teaser ARM is going up and cant sell his house . so now he is living on his credit card, which is going to be the next to blow up along with auto loans, and HELOC's.
Your boys in the White House got us to this point and they have absolutely no clue how to get us out of it. Bush, Bernanke and Paulson are looking like deer in the headlights. And thanks to them a lot of people in this country have been hurt. Thanks GOP.
Got your IRA statement yet, bore? that 20% down in 3 months not bothering you now?
PS. 10 year T bill is going to 3.2%. Thats DEPRESSION territory.
But hey what do I know, I wouldn't dream of telling the Omnipotent One that he/she/it is wrong, for all I know you have a PHD in Economics from Yale like helicopter Ben.
Naah, I dont think so
Gotta go, need to tear off another page on my GW Bush out of office calendar, see what brilliant thing he said , Dang 365 more days!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 2:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Stomp
gold down $20 bucks today, silver down .60. dont expect it to continue its meteoric rise. with the advent of the gold and silver ETF's gld is used as a very liquid hedge, and as such when the markets drop like they have, profits from them are used to meet margin calls and can drop very violently.
can you believe sbore calling us nutjobs?
pot calling the kettle black?
LMFAO!
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 2:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)
well said steamboatsconscience.
We tend to forget that the 1929 stock market crash was over several weeks and took a full 3 yrs to reach bottom.
"On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.
Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times.
Although it is popularly believed that the Crash inflicted heavy financial loss on investors during this period, the Great Depression which followed was far more terrible. While the Crash dealt a severe blow to many a stockholder's portfolio, the Great Depression brought obliteration and bankruptcy. Before it was over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_marke...
Global stocks tanked today, dow futures down 520.
Tommorow could be a black Tuesday.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 3:21 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Wait a minute! What happened to this quote:
"What you are hyping is, safe to say, a market correction (which happens quite regularly and is quite healthy):"
Now it's "possible" that it's coming; not a market correction and it's "natural" as climate change? Flip-flop much, Kerryvor? Or did you just cut & paste without actually reading again? Ohhhh, wait a minute: you are posting someone else's answer and not your answer. What a surprise.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 3:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Most recessions have been in progress for months before we realize we are in one.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 3:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Read this from a man who knows more about the market than any of us
Friday, January 18, 2008
Folding Friday
Yeah.Folding.
As in "The financial system is folding."
I know, I know, The Fed will save us.
Really?
How come they haven't already?
Perhaps it is because they can't? Because they really don't set interest rates, but rather follow the market? Because they know you can't "fix" someone who has borrowed too much by lending them even more money?
Today Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow, on their respective shows, floated an even more outrageous proposal - to effectively steal at gunpoint several firms in the United States and fold their assets and liabilities into the public debt.
Yep.
The Monoline insurers, specifically - Ambac, MBI, etc.
Why?
If you remember at the end of the year in my "Year In Review" I talked about how, in fact, there is only so much "spread", or potential profit, in a particular debt issue, and that "spread" is determined simply by the risk of the issue.
To reduce it to simple terms, if you have a certain risk of not paying your loan back then that commands a higher interest rate than a "risk free" loan - that is, US Treasuries (loaning the Federal Government is generally thought of as being "without risk".)
The chimera (read: FRAUD) is that you can "lay off" this extra risk and not pay for all of it.
For the sake of argument let's say that the "risk difference" is 200 basis points over Treasuries on a given transaction for a given duration.
If you don't want the risk the only way you can lay it off is to give someone ELSE the entire 200 basis points! If they take the "liability" for less than 200 basis points then you have bamboozled them, and if they only reserved 100 basis points (for example) eventually they will go bankrupt because the true risk is twice as high!
It cannot be otherwise.
But if you do that, then why not just buy Treasuries? After all, why go through this entire exercise if indeed it doesn't make you any money?
The obvious answer? YOU WOULD NOT DO SO!
But these banks and other institutions did.
What we have here is a giant con game.
What has to happen here?
Simple: Those institutions that have managed to con others into taking risk for less than its actual price need to eat the consequences, and what better way to make them do so than to let the monolines all blow up!
Now there will be those who say that "we can't allow that".
To which I say "horsecrap!"
We not only CAN allow it, WE CAN'T PREVENT IT!
There ARE solvent banks in this nation - banks who made PRUDENT loans.
There ARE others who can step in the place of Citigroup, Lehman, Merrill and others.
Why don't Kudlow and Cramer suggest that these banks simply issue enough capital stock equal to their current outstanding, diluting all their existing stockholders by half, and use that cash?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 3:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Preposterous? Like hell it is.
Let's look at a few of these banks and their market caps, all in billions.
Merrill Lynch: 44.40
Lehman: 28.32
Morgan Stanley: 47.65
Goldman Sachs: 82.19
Citibank: 121.79
Bank America: 159.65
Total: $484 billion dollars
Gee, we have a $150 billion problem according to Cramer and Kudlow? It would seem to me that the root cause of this problem, the securitization of loans by the above firms (and a few others not included) which were all performed on the basis of improperly laid-off risk, inured to the benefit of these firm's market cap! Therefore, if we are to TAKE capital at gunpoint to solve this problem we should take it from THOSE WHO STOLE IT IN THE FIRST PLACE!
Why isn't this being proposed?
Because this isn't a $100 or $200 billion problem. Its much worse than that, and they know it.
.
And while they might try to "paper it over", if the government actually tries to step in the interest rate on the 10 year will go north of 10% - way north, perhaps as high as 20% - essentially immediately.
That will squick the Federal Government instantly - Bernanke and Paulson know this by the way, which is why it won't happen. Oh, and so do a good number of the members in The House and Senate. I'm sure they've been briefed and "get it" - although you'll never hear them admit that.
These realities are why you're hearing palliatives on the TV like sending everyone a $600 check.
THAT they can do.
Fix this? Can't. Those who are screwed will be cut adrift.
There is no other choice.
Got debt? You're in trouble -
Got cash? Real, unencumbered cash? You'll be doing quite well.
Hope you're in the second group, and not the first, because its too late to change where you are in this regard at this point
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 4:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The only problem with gold being a liquid hedge, is if you get in trouble, and you go to liquidate your gold, but no one can afford to buy it because the currency values worldwide are so inflated the gold will continue to go up as currency values drop.
This is the problem with not having a gold or silver backed currency....
Once the currency tanks, you can't buy gold with it, and no one with the gold can sell it.
Kinda sounds like the bible, doesn't it.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 4:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Here is a 1 year chart of the averages that you gave a 3 month of in your first post.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&a...
since August (5 months) we have had 3- 10% or more corrections . you can see the support line where we bounced off of 3 times. ask any market technician, there is no such thing as a triple top or bottom. see those lines there on the far right? thats called "The Gates OF Hell" we have broken major support levels and the trend is down. we are almost guaranteed a 5% gap down tomorrow and unless the bearded one rides to the rescue with a rate cut,which would only temporarily rally the markets (meaning just long enough so the big boys could get out unscathed) it could be lights out. would 30% down in 3 months still be just a market correction?
thats what all the brokers and talking heads were saying in 1999 and 2000,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=QQQQ&...
while they said
sold to you.
so place your bets.
personally I dont want a crash, but I'll profit from it.
if it rallies here, i'll profit.
all this political posturing from both side is a bunch of crap. all it is doing is delaying the inevitable. we need a recession to wash out the financial stink, the markets need capitulation to get on with it, and the sooner the better.
got puts?
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 4:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
We've been playing against the market for the last year & have made profits from it. Hell- should have bought up Canadian Dollars just for fun over the last year- could have made a killing!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 4:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
stomp
I'm not talking about physical gold, but the gold and silver exchange traded funds, symbols GLD, IAU and SLV
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gld
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=iau
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=slv
they track physical PM's and are backed by physical as the ETF buys gold and silver. they trade like any other stock and you can be long or short them. these ETF's are part of the reason that gold has gone as high as it has because just like oil the money going into them is being fueled by speculators driving the price up. gold in itself is pretty useless except for jewelry and electronics but its perception as something valuable is thousands of years old and the belief that it will be valuable when currencies go down the tubes is probably false.
if we get to the point where we need gold as a currency, we will probably need lead more.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 4:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
kiel
i wish I had bought euros when they first came out and were trading at about $.80 to our dollar and stuck them in the mattress!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 5:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)
sbore
Today's Ticker
Essentially all of Europe was down 5-7%. The futures traded overnight and until midday, and at the close (until 5:00 PM) the /ES S&P futures were down almost 60 handles, or 4.5%, with the Nasdaq 100 /NQ futures down 75 handles, or 4%.
The DOW, were it to open here, would be down about 500.
And if you're an "equity investor for the long term", all you can do today is sit and cry, because the equity markets are closed.
They won't be tomorrow, of course.
But before we get our crack at this, Asia, then Europe, get a go at Round #2. Will the collapse continue? Good question
Barring some sort of massive intervention (which cannot be ruled out) we will have a severe decline tomorrow at the open. It will be very tempting to "short the hole", but down this road lies great risk.
Always remember that until your paper profits are reduced to cash and in your hands, they're not yours! Also remember that attempting to catch the "last tick" of any move, in either direction, frequently leads to tears.
If you got any material part of this decline since the turn of the year and profited from it, you've outperformed virtually everyone.In a Bear Market, your benchmark to exceed is CASH.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 5:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The not-amusing part of this, if you're stuck in a 401k or simply haven't heeded the warning signs and are long the market, is that there is nothing you can do at the present time.
Please remember - Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered. And its very, very easy to be a pig in this environment and go "all in" short.
Resist the temptation.
If you have some "lotto tickets" at this point in time, you're likely looking at big winners tomorrow. Consider cashing out at least your cost basis in those positions, if you're inclined to let the rest run.
1220, my intermediate term target on the SPX, appears to be in play - perhaps as early as tomorrow. Due to the holiday this could actually happen without tripping the "lock limit" on the futures, as it will be over two trading days. We are within 45 points of that target now.Should we get to 1220, I am almost certain to take nearly everything off and bank the money.
Can we go lower than that? Absolutely. In fact, 1070, my "full bear" target, is in view. But expecting us to go there in a straight line is almost beyond comprehension.
We have, for all intents and purposes, crashed here and now. Assuming we were to open right now the market would have lost nearly 20% of its value in less than three weeks' time. By any definition you care to use, that's a crash.
The margin calls will be flying fast and furious tomorrow, which is likely to create interesting dislocations. Those of you who like metals may be in for a truly ugly surprise.
Yes, there will be rallies. As I noted in the technical Friday night, I put some "lotto" style plays back on into the close because I was greatly disturbed by what I was seeing in the market internals, and it appeared that we were heading for Niagra.
The River DeNile flows there, you know.
Goldilocks?
She's what's for dinner.
I'm just trying to show whats lurking out there outside the confines of our idyllic (with tongue firmly planted in cheek) valley
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 5:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
SC- Taking any bets on the the Dow tomorrow? Based on what you saw for the Futures, I'll say closing bell the Dow is down below 12,000. I'm betting close to 11,950.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 5:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
sbore
one more thing. you are quoting data that is at least 6 months old. the Dow has dropped 3000 points in 3 months, the financial market has collapsed, making those statistics moot.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 5:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
kiel
that would be about right.
looking for a possible stick save from the fed. should know by 10 MST. if they dont it could be look out below.
also depends on asia and europe.
the market is ruled by fear and greed.
greed got us to this point.
fear rules for now.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 5:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Moot?? No way! Old links never die; they just make it to Bore's posts to become "fragrant."
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 7:33 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Histronics??? LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!! Who get there panties in a bunch when 90% of the world is out to get them with taxes, affordable housing, global warming and now, even Tom Brady?? I'm just ringing the Pavlov bell.
Everyone sing along:
"Who's the leader of No Land
who freaks out you and me?
s-v-b, o-r-e, a-nah-ny-mous-ly."
my apologies to Mouseketeers.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 21, 2008 at 7:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Now you're helping me insult you? Classic! Conservative, that is! LMAO!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 21, 2008 at 8:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
hey sbore
heres one even you can enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etfVMtCq9...
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 4:34 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Before 9/11 happened, we were headed towards depression.
Then we went to war. We needed more money.
So the Fed introduced all the new bills, remember?
But the old bills were still out there, circulating.
So the economy looked good. There was a combination of old money, and all the new money.
But, the Fed began to remove the old bills. So suddenly, the amount of currency is reduced.
This doesn't hurt those with tons of cash.
It hurts those who make it paycheck to paycheck.
It hurts those who have a 2nd or 3rd mortgage, the fancy cars and the boat and RV, and just barely making their payments.
Suburbia.
When suburbia collapses, they flood the job market...
Then the tsunami begins. We are at that beginning,
IMO.
Watch the panic today. Black Tuesday?
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 4:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Correction: Before 9/11, we were headed toward recession.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 6:02 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Wow! Just in. Bank of America. Last quarter earnings down 90%!
I would pull my money out of their bank.
Posted by shortbus (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 9:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)
What did we expect? How can one of the core commodities of our marketplace more than double (2.14 times pre-Bush) and not have a dramatic effect on our economy. I am sorry, but I remember pre-Bush gas prices of less than $1.30 a gallon. With prices hovering around $3.00 it undoubtedly will have to have a dramatic effect on our economy. Any Macroeconomist would tell you that. The price of oil is core element to our economy. Nearly everything along the supply chain utilizes this commodity either through its manufacturing process or transportation.
In a macroeconomic sense I would argue that the impact of the high energy prices have just started to be felt. Producers are willing to absorb some distribution costs on a very short term basis to handle market fluctuations. However, as it is becoming very apparent that high energy prices are here to stay producers are now passing the doubling this cost of manufacturing on to the consumer (a consumer that has not seen the doubling of wages).
Couple that with the housing market collapse (no offense to my friends that are mortgage brokers, but you had no business making those loans in the first place) and it would be very hard to argue that the artifical propping up of our economy has taken its toll.
Let's not forget the 30 years of accumulation by the baby boomer generation that will start slowing as a part of the natural cycle of life.
sbore, you go ahead and live in your false reality that we are not heading into a recession, but is very naive ... look at the major markets since second quarter of 07.
As a side note, I find it quite interesting that crude prices have fallen from $100 a barrel at the first of the year to now sitting at $88.21 and falling.
Posted by shortbus (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 11:22 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I never claimed the world was coming to an end. sbore. I am so glad that you think that the world is rosy pink. You and your rose coloured glases... but what is to be expected from you.
I do not blame our current predicament of high fuel prices on environmental wackos (though I agree with you that they are out there and more active than ever). I also do not see a shortage of supply (despite news headlines claiming that other countries like India and China are gobbling them up). I do disagree that we should be using our enourmous resources. After all, if we can force other countries to use up all of their resources and keep ours for a future date when we really do have a shortage I am all for it.
I do blame oil companies that have had record breaking profits since the "oil shortage" began. (Since you love to Google so much, find that one; or better yet look at the WSJ; every time one of them reports earnings it exceeds the prior quarter and not just be a little).
I guess I do not see the connection of 50 months of job growth as a correlation as to why we are not heading into a recession... you can have full employment and a recession since the definition relies on negative real economic growth not how many jobs are being created at the same pay they were (or in many industries/sectors less) eight years ago. Only one indicator of a recession is unemployment.
Don't get me wrong, I have personally benefited from the policies of the current administration (I voted to keep it in power... twice) but I do think that the true effect of his policies are just now being felt. It is too late in the game to blame it on 9/11 or the dot-com bubble. IMHO the current President will leave office as a disappointment.
What will the administration's excuse be now... the housing bubble? How about this, let's blame it on Iran (that seems to be the excuse of the week)?
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 22, 2008 at 12:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The Pres should be speaking momentarily. I think it was scheduled for 2:35p Eastern. We'll see what the market does after that before it closes.
Otherwise, Bore, looks like the Dow is right about where I said it would be: hovering around the 11950. Still, 2 hours-ish left for trading.
Posted by dogd (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 5:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Morty:
Don't argue with any of those hysterical helmet toting liberals like closet-joe.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 22, 2008 at 6:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)
dogd- Are you kidding? With the Writer's strike, this stuff is better than most of my favorite TV shows! I'm sending some of this stuff to Stephen Colbert! LOL!
And, even my prediction for the Dow was almost right on: closed 11970.19.
Lost a little in certain areas, but like steamboatconscience said, "got PUTS?" That held our account up nicely!
Posted by seabirth (anonymous) on January 22, 2008 at 7:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)
people are also forgetting another major reason oil prices have gone up so much.... the drastic decline of the dollar.
if the dollar had remained constant, the price per barrel would be far less.
as for the fiscal stimulus plan.... sounds like a great plan for the chinese. finance the money from foreign bond holders (chinese) and then give it to the consumer who buys cheap chinese goods.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 23, 2008 at 3:59 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I think we are headed toward depression.
With the internet, anyone can trade stocks on a daily basis.
I tried it for a bit, but decided to stick with what I'm good at.
Electricity.
Anyway,
What I see happening, and I mean no offense to anyone here,
but I think alot of the money being used in the stock market, is money that people thought they had in the equity of their homes.
We all talk about how we can hedge losses with put options and derivatives, but if those original stock purchases and put options are purchase from already financed income,
and the stock market starts to crash, like it will today, people will lose money in the markets, and not be able to meet their loan payments.
Bank Of America is already showing this happening.
This is just my opinion, but I would sell all stock ASAP and keep your cash on hand, don't put it in the bank.
If you look back at the 1929 crash, if you had money in the bank, you were screwed.
And I've seen this happening in third world countries lately.
People having trouble getting money out of their banks.
Yes, the sky is falling.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 23, 2008 at 3 p.m. (Suggest removal)
For your dictionary- TODAY was a correction...from yesterday. That's why us smart investors rode thru it!
And the irony of the music thread...I think it was lost on you! It was an ode to your flip-flopping nature on censorship...or do you need me to put it "in context" once again? LOL!!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 23, 2008 at 5:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
hey bore
5 words
Government intervention
rumors
short covering
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 24, 2008 at 4:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Ha Ha.
Keep investing
Don't say I didn't warn you.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on January 24, 2008 at 4:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
sbvor, I need to know
Are you a mason?
When I started the illuminati thread, you were highly critical,
but you seem to have to points of view against the NWO
Which is it?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 24, 2008 at 10:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
hey bore
just proves you are falling for the BS
What we got is a bull rally in a bear market. plus a very scared government meddling with interest rates
Our government never ceases to amaze me.
They of course announce a "bipartisan stimulus package" to supposedly "help" our economy.
The bond market no likey, to put it bluntly.
The TNX, 10 year Treasury Rates, spiked hard - by more than 20 basis points, to 3.64%.
That's a six and a quarter percent change on the day!
Oh, and before someone says "oh it was rotation out into equities", no it wasn't.
It was the bond market telling our government to quick jacking around with bull**** "handouts" and tampering with sound mortgage lending practices!
Specifically, what the market didn't like was the prospect of bypassing OFHEO and indexing Freddie and Fannie to "average" home prices for the rest of the year.
We also found out that a supposed "rogue trader" caused a multi-billion-dollar loss for a French Bank, which they had to unwind last week and into Monday.
Then this afternoon The Fed claimed this had nothing to do with their deliberations, and further, that they didn't know about it before their teleconference?
One word: HORSEPOOP.
Let's talk about what probably really happened at The Fed.
* Ben and Buds saw a precipitous drop in commercial credit demand last week. They were faced with either draining huge amounts of liquidity or dropping the FFT.
* Instead of allowing the market to sort out what was going on or doing the right thing and telling the banks - both in the US and overseas - to fess up to what was going on "or else", they PANICKED, and held an emergency meeting via teleconference, "agreeing" that the solution was an emergency rate action. This decision was allegedly made (according to Steve Lies-man) Monday night.
* NOW we find out that the "collapse" in credit demand (and flight to Treasury debt) was actually caused by this "rogue trader" who spasm'd the equity markets worldwide. Or was it? Was that a rogue trader or was it really an institutional attempt - with authorization - on their part to bail themselves out of a bad position or three? Hmmm... who knows.... but the CAUSE of the panic is now clear.
* And NOW the crack addled equity market is demanding another 50 bips in rate cut next week!
Now this wouldn't be so bad except that Bennie had to inject a load of liquidity to maintain the target today. In fact, the slosh took a fairly sizable rocket shot northward.
The bond market, being experts at sniffing out bull, saw all of the above and, having behaved itself up until this point along with a slowing economy, reversed hard, rocketing the cost of money for government debt upwards by six percent in one day!
Oh, and if you look at the short term (13 week) Bill market (the IRX) it rocketed higher by NINE PERCENT!
But but but you sputter, I thought Bennie's move was going to make mortgages and other loans more affordable?
Well let's see.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 24, 2008 at 10:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)
On 1/18 the 10 year closed at 3.648%.
Today, the 10 year closed at 3.640%.Rate cut? Lower interest rates for mortgages and other debt?
Where?
Bennie cut the FFT by 75 bips and the Treasury Market gave him the finger, taking it ALL back in less than 24 hours!
You had about three hours yesterday to capture that lower mortgage rate.
If you didn't lock yesterday, tough crap - you missed it.
And if The Fed - and Congress - doesn't listen to the Bond Market and stop this stupidity government debt costs will continue to skyrocket and drag private debt costs higher, instead of the other way around, and will ultimately force the government to contract itself due to an inability to meet its interest obligations.
You only think The Fed controls interest rates.
It doesn't, and this is what the debt markets do when they get pissed off at government stupidity.
You want to know what I think homeowners who are upside down ought to do after being RAMMED by the politicians today and Ben Bernanke on Tuesday?
After seeing Ben Bernanke AND our government DRIVE UP, RATHER THAN DOWN, DEBT COSTS, DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY SCREWING MORE AND MORE PEOPLE?
They should walk away. Send in the keys. Yes, your credit will be trashed for 7 years. So what?
Tell the bank to get screwed.
Today we had reported the first ANNUAL decline in home prices since the statistics began in the 1960s, and in all probability, since The Depression!
THIS IS NOT OVER.
House prices will continue to decline for the next TWO TO THREE YEARS, and if you're underwater NOW, you're going to be MORE UNDERWATER in a couple more years.
YOU WILL BE A DEBT SLAVE UNLESS YOU ACT TO STOP IT!
CUT YOUR LOSSES! Screw it. Check with an attorney to see if you can have other assets attached (in MANY states the answer is "no" on a purchase money first) and tell the people who have screwed you - and us - to take a hike.
You can either default the debt NOW, or LATER, after throwing even more money down the rathole. But either way, as the economy contracts and your job comes under stress, if you're upside down you're screwed. Better to take the pain RIGHT NOW and cut off a finger rather than losing an entire LEG in a year or two!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 24, 2008 at 10:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Even Cramer recommended doing this ON NATIONAL TELEVISION a couple of months ago!
Oh, and guess what - the mainstream press is even talking about it! Read all about it right here!
LISTEN UP FOLKS: YOU HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO TAKE ANY LEGAL ACTION YOU WISH. Analyze this as a pure BUSINESS DECISION, talk to an attorney, and then ACT.
SAVE YOURSELF.
As this deflation of the monetary base gains steam if you do not act you will have thrown away valuable money you could have otherwise held on to. Go rent a place first - so you pass the credit check and dig yourself out of your personal housing hell!
Beware equity investors.
The short bus is busting at the seams.
Buy this rally? Oh hell no.
It won't take long before reality sets in.
This is a time to sit on your hands and patiently wait for the opportunity to throw darts at the quote page of the Wall Street Journal, then short whatever you hit.
That day is coming, and soon.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 9:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
pt
you are correct, the market is presenting a buying opportunity, but I guarantee this is not the bottom.
I have been trading the long side but only short term. if you are long term you will probably be ok but not without some more pain
As for Cramer, I watch him for amusement, he is about 50 50 on his picks, is usually behind the curve when there is a downturn (perma bull way too long, hurting his viewers), and is lousy at picking bottoms. hows his charitable trust doing anyway?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 10:17 a.m. (Suggest removal)
bore
tell me that the government has never lied to you.
starting with stuttering Hank saying last summer
Subprime mortgage problems are confined and will have no impact on the rest of the economy.
Lie.
Sounds like its you Pubes who are running scared with emergency rate cuts and hastily crafted "stimulus" packages , all designed to make the J6P (consumer) believe that all is well .
Lie.
If all is well, how come they are already selling this rally? even I thought it would last until the Fed decision on Wed. oh well.
hows that Microsoft rally going?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft
Here's one for you. kinda dark in there, dont ya think?
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 12:14 p.m. (Suggest removal)
bore
guess its really dark in there http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak...
at least I come up with something different every day while all you can do is repeat the same old bs day after day
believe me you are the last person that I would try to convince that you are wrong, egomaniacs listen to no one but their own reflection.
your sophomoric grasp of the economy and the market is amusing. as someone who questions everyone and everything around here, and berates the media constantly (except the far right wing media of course) you are telling me that you believe everything the government tells you? my guess is when the Dems win the White House and both Houses this year than everything they tell you will be a lie, right?
done with you.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 12:52 p.m. (Suggest removal)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/61661-wh...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 1:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
wasnt talking to you
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 1:56 p.m. (Suggest removal)
pt
yup
possibility 3, SG was going to write down a big loss and decided to try doing it this way letting a low level schlub take the fall and take care of him after he spends a couple of years in jail.
Truth is stranger than fiction.
http://www.rickrichards.com/
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 2 p.m. (Suggest removal)
bore, bore, bore
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak...
your glasses need cleaning
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 25, 2008 at 4:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
here ya go bore
http://www.photos.klr650.net/displayimag...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 26, 2008 at 8:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)
"C" is for CONgress....
... and for an a-b-c corrective movement on the stock indices.
On the CONgressional point, go to the petition page at http://financialpetition.org/ and sign again please. Yes, this is different. It is a plea for the CONgress to quit dorking around and actually force all the bad debts in the banking system out where we (the people) can see 'em.
Why?
Because if we don't, we're going to be facing a catastrophe.
We're in a recession now folks.
NBER will call it a year from now. I'm calling it right now.
Why?Profits. Period. Hello!
That, and ramping debt defaults.
The market is starting to "get it", which is why we had a huge selloff. This is not done and those who listen to Cramer and Kudlow, trying to "bottom fish" here, are going to be looking at blackened - as in "burnt up", not "made lots of money" - 401k and IRA statements in the coming months.
Recessions are not to be feared. They are in fact good things, in that they clean out the bad businesses and cause them to go under, which is exactly what needs to happen from time to time. This is true despite the wishes of some that we would never have a recession - an impossible and outrageous expectation, but there you have it.
Government, of course, can make it worse. A lot worse. And left alone that is exactly what they will do by trying to buy votes with promises of "bread and circuses", all of which, by the way are empty promises. Why?
First, the $1,000 or so they're claiming will be distributed will do nothing, for it will not hit anyone's bank for months and when it does, people will likely pay down debt rather than spend it - which means "no stimulus effect."
Second, the changes that Democrats want to make to Fannie and Freddie limits are unsafe (so says OFHEO, the regulator of these organizations) and could very easily cause the cost of mortgage money in the "conforming space" to ramp precipitously - especially if these GSEs start to run into trouble in the marketplace (and they're likely to.)
Further, we are right now seeing credit contraction. That's deflation folks. Its even starting to show up on "mainstream" media sites - for example:
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 26, 2008 at 8:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
"Other credit available to consumers has been shrinking sharply, according to an analysis by Ms. Zentner. The pool of unused credit — predominantly home equity lines of borrowing, bank loans and credit cards — was still growing at nearly 15 percent annually as recently as the fall of 2006. Now, with debt mounting, home prices falling and job growth slowing, that pool is diminishing at an 8 percent annual rate."
Ding ding ding ding ding.
Folks, credit is money and money is credit. Yes, I know they're different. But they are what is called "fungible" in the world of finance - that is, interchangeable for purposes of trade.
Credit is, in fact, virtually all of the monetary supply! Very little is actual money.
Oh, that "throw darts at the WSJ's Stock Page to pick shorts" moment? It may be approaching - see this:
"The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is updating rules for how mutual funds value holdings after they struggled to price mortgage-backed investments during the subprime-lending crisis.
Regulators are reacting to an explosion in derivatives and mortgage-backed bonds that don't always trade on exchanges, said Douglas Scheidt, an associate director in the SEC's investment management division. The guidelines, to be proposed this quarter, will set out steps to value assets when trading prices aren't available, he said."
That could easily do it all on its own.....
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 27, 2008 at 11:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
getting interesting
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080128/markets_g...
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNe...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 28, 2008 at 8:39 a.m. (Suggest removal)
AP
New Home Sales Fall by Record Amount
Monday January 28, 10:30 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
New Home Sales Dropped in 2007 by a Record Amount; Prices Posted Weakest Showing in 16 Years
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new homes plunged by a record amount in 2007 while prices posted the weakest showing in 16 years, demonstrating the troubles builders are facing with a huge backlog of unsold homes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080128/economy.h...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 28, 2008 at 11:31 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Corporate Earnings On Track For Worst Drop Since 2001Last update: 1/28/2008 9:49:18 AM
By Laura Mandaro
What was expected to be a stormy season for U.S. corporate earnings has turned into a blizzard, at least as far as financials are concerned. Fourth-quarter earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are on track to fall 20.5% from the same quarter last year, the most severe drop since the fourth quarter of 2001. By contrast, analysts were expecting a 9.8% drop in profits heading into this month's round of earnings reports, according to Thomson Financial. There are still about 340 companies in the S&P that have yet to report, and analysts said the overall picture could improve as a broader range of companies, particularly technology firms, announce their earnings. But with financials, materials firms and consumer discretionary companies all set to report profit declines for the period, actual earnings growth for the quarter seems out of reach. The main culprits for the results storm are the banks and the multibillion-dollar, debt-related losses they reported. Things were so bad among the nation's financial institutions that they managed to lose more money than the already gloomy analysts expected. Headlined by nearly $10 billion each in losses at Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) and Citigroup Inc. (C), reported and expected fourth-quarter earnings at financial institutions are on track to fall by the equivalent of more than 100% of their year-ago results - a far deeper tumble than the 67% slide that analysts were anticipating earlier this month. As expected, banks took huge write-downs on subprime debt and derivatives. Those with big consumer operations, such as Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), jacked up loan-loss reserves to cushion against accelerating delinquencies on credit card, car and other consumer loans. "Clearly the big story on earnings has been in financials," said Rod Smyth, chief investment strategist for Wachovia Securities. However, he anticipates nonfinancial companies will also struggle to meet earnings expectations. "There are more disappointments to come outside financials as the reality of a slower global economy plays out," he said. The grim news from financial institution earnings has stoked fears that the U.S. is headed toward, or is already in, a recession sparked by the housing slump, tight credit and high gasoline prices. This past Tuesday, in an effort to prevent a deep recession, the Federal Reserve engineered a surprise 75-basis-point cut in its benchmark overnight lending rate. The U.S. central bank cited a "weakening of the economic outlook," deterioration in financial markets and tighter credit for businesses and households.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 28, 2008 at 1:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
what part of minus signs across the WORLD dont you understand?
Global Stock Indexes at 15:15 EST/2015 GMTLast update: 1/28/2008 3:15:13 PM
Latest Change %Change %12/31
New York DJ Indus 12261.80 +54.63 +0.45 -7.56 Intraday
Nasdaq 2328.00 +1.80 +0.08 -12.23 Intraday
NYSE Comp 8888.05 +60.55 +0.69 -8.75 Intraday
S&P 500 1339.97 +9.36 +0.70 -8.74 Intraday
Russell 2000 695.33 +6.73 +0.98 -9.23 Intraday
DJ Wilshire 5 13521.68 +98.18 +0.73 -8.76 Intraday
Toronto S&P/TSX 12890.43 -4.40 -0.03 -6.81 Intraday
London FTSE 100 5788.90 -80.10 -1.36 -10.35 Close
FTSE 250 9640.50 -98.00 -1.01 -9.55 Close
Frankfurt Xetra DAX 6818.85 +2.11 +0.03 -15.48 Close
Paris CAC40 4848.30 -29.82 -0.61 -13.64 Close
Tokyo Nikkei Stock 13087.91 -541.25 -3.97 -14.50 Close
Nikkei 300 263.21 -11.11 -4.05 -12.58 Close
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24053.61 -1068.76 -4.25 -13.52 Close
Sydney S&P/ASX 200 5860.30 +279.90 +5.02 -7.56 Jan 25
All Ord 5886.30 +280.50 +5.00 -8.33 Jan 25
DJ Europe STOXX 600 318.70 -3.53 -1.10 -12.60 Close
STOXX 50 3212.47 -33.54 -1.03 -12.79 Close
EuroSTOXX50 3765.41 -11.65 -0.31 -14.42 Close
Amsterdam AEX 439.32 +0.63 +0.14 -14.82 Close
Athens ASE 4442.34 -74.47 -1.65 -14.22 Close
Brussels BEL-20 3663.79 +30.15 +0.83 -11.23 Close
Copenhagen KFX 399.50 -5.50 -1.36 -13.93 Close
Dublin ISEQ 6641.64 -119.07 -1.76 -4.22 Close
Helsinki HEX 10306.29 -263.74 -2.50 -11.14 Close
Istanbul IMKB-100 43706.68 -1790.56 -3.94 -21.30 Close
Jo-burg All Share 25692.87 -809.36 -3.05 -11.28 Close
Lisbon PSI General 3481.00 -8.44 -0.24 -15.59 Close
Madrid IBEX 35 13026.70 -114.40 -0.87 -14.20 Close
Milan S&P/MIB 34234.00 +37.00 +0.11 -11.21 Close
Mibtel 25858.00 -40.00 -0.15 -12.05 Close
Oslo All-Share 463.26 -12.11 -2.55 -18.72 Close
Prague PX 1487.40 -49.30 -3.21 -18.05 Close
Russia RTS 1978.68 -54.41 -2.68 -13.61 Close
Vienna ATX 3781.94 -119.56 -3.06 -16.20 Close
Zurich Swiss Mkt 7581.73 -105.15 -1.37 -10.64 Close
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 28, 2008 at 2:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
and the Pubes are easier to spot ,they got their heads in the dirt
http://www.photos.klr650.net/displayimag...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 29, 2008 at 3:06 p.m. (Suggest removal)
new business model
http://www.youwalkaway.com/index.html
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 30, 2008 at 10:14 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter
Wednesday January 30, 11:00 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter; Suffers Worst Year Since 2002
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002.
The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated.
For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years. The report came as the Democratic-run Congress and the Bush administration continue to work on a program of tax rebates and business incentives aimed at stimulating the economy.
"We are not happy with 0.6 percent GDP growth," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in an interview with The Associated Press. "We now need the full Congress to move forward as soon as possible because consumers -- the American people -- are waiting for that check and that is going to help them."
Said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics: "The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street. The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak.
The fourth-quarter's performance was much weaker -- half the pace -- than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace.
The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product (GDP) marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarter's brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.
The GDP figures come as worries mount that the country is on the verge of a recession or perhaps is already sliding into one.
To help bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve was poised Wednesday to again cut interest rates. An afternoon announcement was expected.
REMEMBER Christmas is included in these #'s. OR should I say Grinchmas.
But dont worry, the .gov will ride to the rescue with rate cuts (can you say INFLATION?) and BS "Rescue" packages.
sorry bore, you are living in the past, actually even you could learn something about economics from me.
as the great Thomas Dewar once said
"Minds are like parachutes, they only function when open."
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 11:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
LOL! Again- time to use the Bore's BEA link to dispute the statement. The funny part? SBC's post is points to all the stats that caused Bore to say, "YOU LOSE:"
First paragraph:
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis." Just no actual analysis on this site since it's a Gov site. That's left up to...Bum, bum BUMMMM: Economic Writers.
Once again, the Bore proves that you don't have to read the link in order to provide them. Nothing in any link disputes what SBC quoted; just a fear of someone countering the Bore's propaganda. So much for "educated." Intoxicated...maybe. Medicated? Oooohhhhh, we've known that one for a while!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 30, 2008 at 11:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)
kiel
as the great Thomas Dewar once said
"Minds are like parachutes, they only function when open.""
maybe bore could use some of Tommy's medicine, eh?
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 12:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
SBC- No, I think the Bore has been nipping too much Dewar's recently: Bore's own brand of Fool-Aid from people who have more guts to put name to their own thoughts instead of just Googling and cutting & pasting. Most 5yr olds can do that. So much for who is proving child-like.
Bore- PROVE what sbc quoted was a lie. You can't since it quoted FACTS that YOUR LINK provided and was expanded in an OP-ED piece. Again- fear of propaganda that disputes your own propaganda.
You truly don't read anything you post any longer. In fact, you just cut and paste most of the above post...yet again, proving you only Wash, Rinse & Repeat.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 12:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Actually, the Bore could use some of Edison's Medicine: a light bulb to illuminate while reading green, dinosaur CRT for the Apple IIe.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 12:55 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Readers: now ask yourself what does that post say that disputes what SBC posted and what the "lies" are. In fact, the Bore's "January 30, 2008 at 9:22 a.m." post is mostly the same links, same crap posted at least 4 other times in the last 2 days on this very thread.
Remember: Repetition makes it correct! Bush even does this with each speech: "Al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq." Must be the Iraqi equivalent to the Boston Marathon. Each State of the Union we hear that Al Qaeda is on the run. Running....where? To the other side of Iraq to stick out their tongues at us while we play "Wherdidego? Wherdidego?"
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 30, 2008 at 12:55 p.m. (Suggest removal)
good job Bernanke
watch the value of our money go down the tubes
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 30, 2008 at 12:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
same chart over just the last 2 years.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&...
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 1:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
SBC- Waaaaiiiitttt a minute: NYBOT has three letters in that Acronym that are also used for the New York Times (N-Y-T...or O-Y-T for the Bore), so it must be a Liberal website. Therefore, it's null and void from being accurate.
LOL!
***boy, Al Qaeda must be the new Jim Fixx, being out there running all these years. Maybe Al will just drop over from a heart attack, too, and we can declare "Victory!"***
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on January 30, 2008 at 1:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)
kiel
what about FOX? 3 letters? Fascist right wingers?
that $ chart is scary thats real buying power evaporating
a .5% rate cut, why is the 10 year up?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Etnx
the rally is already bleeding off, it wont hold
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 1:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
No, no: FOX stands for Fooling Others Xceedingly. Or, it was the past President of Mexico.
Ooohhhh, I love watching Hannity do his little petulant "No it's not. No it's not." over and over again when someone presents contradictory info to what he says.
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on January 30, 2008 at 1:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Wow! Another cut and paste! How...new.
If there is nothing to support us dwindling into a possible recession, why are they discussing a stimulus package? A market correction wouldn't cause that. Normally, it's a simple interest rate adjustment to spark it back to life.
No, giving back that much money means the Pres is worried, and he's your "Lincoln," remember? He must do what's unpopular, but necessary, right?
So: the whole thing is, the EXPERIENCE is telling you your LINKS are what LOSE!
Gee. What cut & pasty response should we expect this time? Remember: repetition is key in propaganda.
"prop·a·gan·da (prŏp'ə-gān'də) Pronunciation Key
n.
The systematic propagation of a doctrine or cause or of information reflecting the views and interests of those advocating such a doctrine or cause."
Pretty systematic to repeat stuff over and over, huh?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 1, 2008 at 4:54 p.m. (Suggest removal)
today's news
negative employment #'s
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080201/economy.h...
hows your HELOC doing?
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-lo...
is the boat safe from decline?
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/art...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 1, 2008 at 5:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Hope Now or Hope Never?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 1, 2008 at 5:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)
on a lighter note
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 3, 2008 at 10:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
ARE THE BANKS OUT OF RESERVES?
Let me preface this by saying that I'm not at all certain I understand what I'm looking at here correctly.
I've been fighting with this all weekend, and don't wish to alarm.
But perhaps "alarmed" is exactly what we should be right now.
Reference? Right here http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h...
Specifically:
Date total(2) non- required excess Monetary credit, total primary secondary seasonal
borrowed(3) NSA(4) base(5) NSA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30p 41639 -8751 40179 1460 821298 50000 390 385 0 5
What are you looking at here?
This is the last line of the Fed's "Statistical Release" from January 31st. All figures are in millions. The link to their page is above.
The "Total" is the total amount of reserves in the Fed System (among all member banks), and is approximately $41.5 billion. The required reserves, based on the amount on deposit, is $40.2 billion (roughly.)
So far so good.
But notice that "non-borrowed" number - the negative 8751?
What does that mean?
Well, after much study and trying to get the numbers to all add up, the light went on.
Let's add up a few things for everyone.
The TAF credit, which is the amount that Fed Banks have borrowed in total through the TAF facility through January 30th, is 50 billion. We also have other primary and seasonal borrowings, which are quite small (and normal) of $385 and $5 million, respectively.
Now let's get out our trusty calculator and add things up.
50000 + 390 (385 + 5) - 8751 = $41,639.
The books balance. But do you notice anything about this bookkeeping? Literally all of the banks' reserves, on balance, are in fact Fed Credit from the Federal Reserve!
WHERE IS YOUR MONEY THAT YOU DEPOSITED?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 3, 2008 at 10:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Now normally only 10% (or is it 5% now - it sure looks like it, when you look at the monetary base!) of what you deposit is "held back" in reserve. This is, in fact, the very foundation of a fractional reserve banking system, and whether you agree or disagree with that as a foundation, it is what it is and it is what it has been since The Federal Reserve was set up.
But unless I'm reading this table incorrectly, there not only is no reserve of depositors money currently being held the banks are in aggregate nine billion in the hole with respect to what is supposed to be held - having replaced all of it, and then some, with the TAF Auction Credit!
So this leads one to an obvious - and disturbing - question:
Where did the reserve that was supposed to be held back from our deposited funds go, and where is it now? Oh, and why has the deterioration been so dramatic - going from basically all of your reserves being depositor money two months ago to now being less than "none"?
The follow-up to that question, by the way, is even more serious:
Exactly how far can "non-borrowed" reserves go into the hole and how, and when, will they no longer BE in the hole? Are fire-sale style asset sales in the offing - in the very near future - in order to rectify this little problem?
I don't have either answer, but I'd sure like to know what those answers are.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 3, 2008 at 11:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
addendum to the above
if you go to the historical data page which goes back to 1959
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h...
No similar event appears to exist within the range of online records, which go back to 1959. (Weekly data available through 1975.)
also for those who may not know the TAF is the Temporary Auction Facility; established by the Federal Reserve for the banks to 'auction' their MBS, CDOs,etc.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypo...
can we be sure that the FDIC is solvent? and our $100,000 per account is safe?
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on February 4, 2008 at 5:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Wow, good stuff steamboatsconscience.
It's obvious there is a deliberate economic attack
on our financial system.
I wonder if the stock market knows this, and the
recent slight recovery is 'puts' being purchased.
Could the market falsely rebound on bets against the
market?
Then, suddenly, 'they' pull the rug out.
Exactly like the great depression.
Good grief, we are in trouble.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on February 4, 2008 at 5:48 a.m. (Suggest removal)
How much you wanna bet the non-borrowed amount is held in electronic "eurodollars"
http://www.globalfinancialdata.com/artic...
Iraq and the hidden eurodollar wars
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/EN...
"CME Eurodollar futures prices are determined by the market’s forecast for the delivery month of the 3-month LIBOR interest rate"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
Tax havens, use and misuse. Isle of Man, Queen of England, and control of the Eurodollar offshore accounts.
http://books.google.com/books?id=RDiASPn...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 4, 2008 at 8:59 a.m. (Suggest removal)
commercial real estate in tank, bank failures possible, Comptroller of Currency
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db2badd6-d05c-...
Nice job Bush, $410 Billion deficit
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080204/bush_budg...
stomp
still trying to figure it out, not a conspiracy (come on) , but most likely the .gov's attempt to bail out the banks with the TAF auctions, but Europe is definitely in trouble
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jh...
Well I'll keep looking, just waiting for bore to tell me "IF the media would just shut up it would get better" or "If I ignore it , it will go away.
Nero fiddled while Rome burned too.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 8:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Weak Service-Sector Report Stirs Concerns About Economy's Health
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/wall_stre...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 9:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)
thought you dont read what i post anymore
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 9:33 a.m. (Suggest removal)
all I am doing is posting the latest data released by the government, all of which are pointing to a recession. its not hysteria, its called being ahead of the curve rather than denying that it is a real possibility.
when the financial sector leads the way down as it is now, we are in for a rough ride, and the American public will be the biggest losers.
if I said the sky is blue, you would say no, it is ABSOLUTELY yellow or green or red, just to be argumentative. you do it with everyone.
no problem, I'm not here to convince you of anything, you have convinced yourself.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 9:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
shouldnt you be standing outside the Post Office right now handing out your propaganda and railing against the Dems and engaging in fisticuffs with Ken?
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on February 5, 2008 at 9:41 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Dinobore says:
"I don't have to.
It's always the same daily media hysteria tune sung in a different key."
Pot? Meet Kettle.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 9:55 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Subslime, one of the US's biggest export product
The Royal Bank of Scotland is scrambling to reassure investors that it has a robust capital base in the face of increasing speculation that it needs to plug an estimated £12.5bn gap in its finances.
The Edinburgh-based bank is facing tough questions from City analysts and investors about whether it needs to conduct a rights issue or sell off assets to raise funds. There are also concerns that it might need to write off more losses from its exposure to financial instruments linked to the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 10:22 a.m. (Suggest removal)
guess we know who's bore's hero
just cant figure out which one is more egotistical
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/s...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 12:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Oil Drops Below $88 on Recession Fears
Oil futures fell sharply Tuesday, dropping below $88 after financial markets were surprised by data that indicated the traditionally strong service sector shrank dramatically last month, raising the prospect that demand for energy will weaken along with the economy. Expectations that crude supplies are climbing also took prices lower.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/oil_price...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 1:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
tell you what. if the economy is in such good shape show me some good CURRENT news that would that would prove it. and not your old tired retread links. something NEW
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 1:29 p.m. (Suggest removal)
............and the beat goes on.............
Posted by 424now (anonymous) on February 5, 2008 at 6:03 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Its like an investing class in here!
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 6, 2008 at 10:39 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Toll Brothers 1Q Home-Building Rev $842.7M, -22% >TOLL last update: 2/6/2008 5:39:52 AM DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Wednesday said it doesn't see any end in sight to housing market woes, and said its fiscal first-quarter home-building revenue fell 22% from year-ago levels to $842.7 million. "The housing market remains very weak in most areas. Based on current traffic and deposits, we are not yet seeing much light at the end of the tunnel," said Robert Toll, the firm's chairman and CEO. Toll Brothers said its backlog fell to $2.4 billion, down 42% from the fiscal first quarter of 2007. The company said the gross number of signed contracts on homes fell 46% from last year. Toll said the average price of a house it sold fell, while the average price of cancelled houses rose. "With conditions still weak in most markets, we expect to continue to face challenging times ahead," Toll said. The company said it is still finalizing its first-quarter impairment analysis, but said it expects pretax write-downs of between $150 million and $300 million.
Toll said it will report full first-quarter results on Feb. 27.
-Greg Morcroft; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires
Posted by 424now (anonymous) on February 6, 2008 at 2:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Welcome to my neck of the woods,
I can't afford to invest in the stock maket. I wish I could but I can't.
But,
SBC, You quote a comment that made me think.
"With conditions still weak in most markets, we expect to continue to face challenging times ahead,"
I thought SS is not most markets. I am painfully aware of that. I need a three bedroom house at a reasonable price. In a nice neighborhood. Close to or in town. 600,000.00 is not my idea of reasonable. I'm still waiting.
The housing market may slump across the board but I have been in that industry a long time and I can tell you it slows but it never stops. Every slump I have witnessed has turned a corner eventually.
Now I would like to ask the thread a question.
Reviewing some of the data furnished in links above I have seen several trends. Overall they seem to me to indicate that;
Over the last 60 years we have had several fluctuations in an economy that has overall continued to grow.
Is that incorrect?
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on February 6, 2008 at 5:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Wonder what happens tomorrow on Wall Street?
http://www6.comcast.net/news/articles/ge...
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/artic...
Nuff said.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 6, 2008 at 7:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
kiel
Wall Street thinks the stimulus package is all BS anyway. I hope they derail the whole thing.
when I mentioned the ISM numbers yesterday morning, the bore dismissed it with the same old same old cut and paste, so you had to know that it was relevant
Cisco is getting slaughtered after hours the QQQQ's and SPY will be down tomorrow. Technically its still sell the rallies.
pt
well you got steel ones eh?
hope you sold some covered calls against them.
424
Steamboat is not most markets, since it is a resort area, and highly desirable. over the last 10 years nearly everyone's property has doubled in value, vacant land has appreciated even more (astronomically in some cases, and is the biggest factor, in my opinion, to the cost of housing being so high) so you are about 10 years late to the party. about 30% of that has come in the last 2 years. So are we in a bubble here? well the answer is... maybe. when I see 900 sf 4 plex crackerboxes going for $500 a sf, then maybe it's time to sell my 2300sf single family I built for $200k and move to Laguna Beach and live happily ever after.
Its impossible to call a top or bottom in any market, but I think we are at a crossroads here and and I expect that prices will hold but not go up for a while. Mortgage lending standards are getting tougher there wont be anyone lending on those $450k condos with little or no down and no income verification. tighter lending could bring prices down , or it could take supply off the market if people decide that if they cant get their price they wont sell. but I can be pretty sure that it still will not be affordable to own a house here anytime soon.
Colorado is a boom or bust economy, housing in general is the same. until the major homebuilders work off their inventory of unsold homes and banks get the majority of their foreclosed properties sold, housing will be in a slump.
Locals here will remember it wasnt too many years ago the Sunday Pilot's public notices were full of foreclosure notices.
Been quiet lately.
Is that about to change?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 6, 2008 at 10:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)
how about a plane ticket to Pamplona? it would be safer.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on February 7, 2008 at 5:45 a.m. (Suggest removal)
-Quote-
A small group of scientists, including some psychologists, say they are starting to discover what many Wall Street professionals have long suspected — that people are hard-wired for money. The human brain, these researchers say, responds to high-stakes trading just as it does to the lure of sex. And the riskier the trades get, the more the brain craves them.
-End of quote-
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/busine...
And Ben Stein says;
"In other words, traders are sending stocks down by a fantastically larger amount than is warranted by a recession or the losses in subprime. How and why does it happen? As someone said in the movie: “Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.” It’s just Chinatown in trader-land, where money is made and there is no perspective."
Read his interesting article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/busine...
The powers that be want economic depression, so they can hijack the dollar, because they want one world currency.
Posted by stompk (anonymous) on February 7, 2008 at 5:45 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Ever hear of a Corporate Sweep account?
-Quote-
In United States Banking, eurodollars are a popular option for what are known as "sweeps". By law, banks aren't allowed to pay interest on corporate checking accounts. To accommodate larger businesses, banks may automatically transfer, or sweep, funds from a corporation's checking account into an overnight investment option to effectively earn interest on those funds. Banks usually allow these funds to be swept either into money market mutual funds, or alternately they may be used for bank funding by transferring to an offshore branch of a bank (thus a eurodollar).
-End of quote-
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
But guess what. You have to read the fine print.
-Quote-
Please note that your money in the Sweep Investment Account is invested in money market funds that are not insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. Although the funds seek to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the funds. A current prospectus must accompany investment information. Investors should read the prospectus carefully before investing.
-End of quote-
Source: http://www.guarantybank.com/corporate/tr...
Some of these corporations hold billion in their corporate checking accounts. Naturally, although unethical, many are
going to allow the banks to do this.
What happens when these investment begin to tank, like they are, and the holders of the offshore eurodollar accounts begin to keep more and more, effectively sucking up all the dollars in the US.
Since they control the Federal Reserve, they can simply print more money, further deflating the value of the dollar,
trapping these huge corporate investments in offshore accounts, that Americans have absolutely no control over.
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 7, 2008 at 5:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Treasurys slide after auction draws poor reception
U.S. Treasurys plunged on Thursday, sending yields sharply higher, with the long bond down nearly three full points, after the government's $9 billion auction of 30-year bonds drew a dismal reception.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tr...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 7, 2008 at 5:56 p.m. (Suggest removal)
A bond Primer
The Last Asset Bubble?
ttp://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 7, 2008 at 6:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)
make that link
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on February 7, 2008 at 7:25 p.m. (Suggest removal)
January jobs report:
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/...
"* The economy shed 17,000 jobs in January, much worse than the forecast for a gain of 70,000 (especially after ADP said the economy ADDED 130,000 workers in the month). It's also the first time the economy lost jobs since August 2003 (-42,000). The chart above shows the net gains or losses in jobs, by month, going back several years.
* As it always does in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its jobs numbers from the past year. Most months saw reductions in job growth, with the net impact a cut of 376,000 jobs to 2007's previously reported numbers.
* Earnings growth slowed. Average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% after gaining 0.4% in December. That was below the 0.3% that economists were looking for.
* The "diffusion" index fell to 46.2 from 50 in December. This number measures how many industries are ADDING jobs against how many are CUTTING them. A number below 50 means more industries are shedding workers than adding them. January's reading was the lowest since August 2003.
* Speaking of industry cuts, the construction sector shed another 27,000 jobs (on top of readings of -45,000 in December and -57,000 in November), and manufacturing lost another 28,000 positions, the biggest drop since August (-45,000).
There weren't many other notable gains or losses, with the exception of education/health (+47,000). Leisure and hospitality continues to add jobs, but the rate of increase is slowing (to 19,000 in January from 22,000 in December, 24,000 in November and 52,000 in October). In fact overall service sector gained just 34,000 jobs in January, the least since October 2005.
Early market reaction? Stock futures have dipped into negative territory. Long bond futures are trading up a half point, while 2-year yields are down 5 basis points and 10-year yields have dipped just over a basis point. The dollar index initially spiked lower, but is now off just 14 ticks. It's worth pointing out, however, that the DXY has been deteriorating over the past several days and it's now within a stone's throw of its multi-decade low (75.05 now vs. the November 23, 2007 low of 74.48)."
Paints a rosy picture, eh? Makes you wonder what the Feb rate will show. Plus, the Senate voted the Bill in today. Note that this is dated 1FEB and states EARLY market reaction.
A recession is coming. Why else would there even BE a stimulus package? Bush even admitted there was a risk of recession...or a PC "downturn."
Just like the old Steamboat slogan: "It's Comin'." You can't see it because your got your head up someone's southbound talking points.
In fact, the last stimulus package (read: tax cuts) still not keep us from recession. We bombed Iraq in order to get out of it. About the time it turned around.
Don't bother answering: I'm sure you're too busy coming up with a new handle to hide behind soon, because again: "It's Comin'!"
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 10, 2008 at 4:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Many Believe US Already in a Recession
Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
The fallout from a depressed housing market and a credit crunch nearly caused the economy to stall in the final three months of last year. Some experts, like the majority of people questioned in the poll, say the economy actually may be shrinking now. The worry is that consumers and businesses will hunker down further and pull back spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080210/recession...
Posted by kielbasa (Matthew Stoddard) on February 10, 2008 at 4:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
January jobs report:
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/......
"* The economy shed 17,000 jobs in January, much worse than the forecast for a gain of 70,000 (especially after ADP said the economy ADDED 130,000 workers in the month). It's also the first time the economy lost jobs since August 2003 (-42,000). The chart above shows the net gains or losses in jobs, by month, going back several years.
* As it always does in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its jobs numbers from the past year. Most months saw reductions in job growth, with the net impact a cut of 376,000 jobs to 2007's previously reported numbers.
* Earnings growth slowed. Average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% after gaining 0.4% in December. That was below the 0.3% that economists were looking for.
* The "diffusion" index fell to 46.2 from 50 in December. This number measures how many industries are ADDING jobs against how many are CUTTING them. A number below 50 means more industries are shedding workers than adding them. January's reading was the lowest since August 2003.
* Speaking of industry cuts, the construction sector shed another 27,000 jobs (on top of readings of -45,000 in December and -57,000 in November), and manufacturing lost another 28,000 positions, the biggest drop since August (-45,000).
There weren't many other notable gains or losses, with the exception of education/health (+47,000). Leisure and hospitality continues to add jobs, but the rate of increase is slowing (to 19,000 in January from 22,000 in December, 24,000 in November and 52,000 in October). In fact overall service sector gained just 34,000 jobs in January, the least since October 2005.
Early market reaction? Stock futures have dipped into negative territory. Long bond futures are trading up a half point, while 2-year yields are down 5 basis points and 10-year yields have dipped just over a basis point. The dollar index initially spiked lower, but is now off just 14 ticks. It's worth pointing out, however, that the DXY has been deteriorating over the past several days and it's now within a stone's throw of its multi-decade low (75.05 now vs. the November 23, 2007 low of 74.48)."
Paints a rosy picture, eh? Makes you wonder what the Feb rate will show. Plus, the Senate voted the Bill in today. Note that this is dated 1FEB and states EARLY market reaction.
A recession is coming. Why else would there even BE a stimulus package? Bush even admitted there was a risk of recession...or a PC "downturn."
Just like the old Steamboat slogan: "It's Comin'." You can't see it because your got your head up someone's southbound talking points.
In fact, the last stimulus package (read: tax cuts) still not keep us from recession. We bombed Iraq in order to get out of it. About the time it turned around.
Don't bother answering: I'm sure you're too busy coming up with a new handle to hide behind soon, because again: "It's Comin'!"
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 10, 2008 at 10:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The Mother of all Bubbles the Bond Market
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editor...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 11, 2008 at 8:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Tip of the Iceberg
NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest insurer, on Monday disclosed that its auditors questioned the company's internal controls over its valuation of derivatives, sending its shares down more than 11 percent.
The disclosure cast doubt on AIG's past contention that it didn't face major problems stemming from the credit crisis that has slammed other financial institutions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNe...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 11, 2008 at 8:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
US Subslime infects the World
Sub-prime fears at WestLB and IKB threaten German banking
WestLB and the IKB, once dubbed the turbines in Germany's powerhouse, were struggling yesterday to cling on to their reputation as serious lenders.
The two banks are still reeling from the meltdown in the US sub-prime market. The crisis is percolating through the whole of the German banking sector; politicians are increasingly nervous that at least one German bank may go under, which would send a devastating signal to the markets.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/bu...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 11, 2008 at 9:13 a.m. (Suggest removal)
yeah bore
I guess the worldwide banking system going down the tubes is a real snoozer.
like all your boring rhetoric.
Hows your IRA doing?
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 11, 2008 at 6:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Let’s Have a Good Old-Fashioned Recession
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/02/11/le...
Posted by steamboatsconscience (anonymous) on February 14, 2008 at 11:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime
How the Bush Administration Stopped the States From Stepping In to Help Consumers
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...
By Eliot Spitzer
Thursday, February 14, 2008; Page A25
Several years ago, state attorneys general and others involved in consumer protection began to notice a marked increase in a range of predatory lending practices by mortgage lenders. Some were misrepresenting the terms of loans, making loans without regard to consumers' ability to repay, making loans with deceptive "teaser" rates that later ballooned astronomically, packing loans with undisclosed charges and fees, or even paying illegal kickbacks. These and other practices, we noticed, were having a devastating effect on home buyers. In addition, the widespread nature of these practices, if left unchecked, threatened our financial markets.
Even though predator